46140 Spruce Pl · Nikiski, AK 99635

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1983 0.92 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

4 BR/2BA SUPREME FIXER UPPER. Been waiting for bargain with big return? This is it! Nice subdivision, area close to schools, beach and only 8-10 min from downtown Kenai. Bring on the dumpsters, front end loader and put your investment dollars to work. Being sold AS-IS with buyer's to inherit everything on site. New roof 2012. Seller also owns 1 acre adjoining lot.

Key facts

• 1 acre adjoining lot
• New roof
• 0.92 acre lot

Tags

• AREA CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• 8-10 MIN FROM DOWNTOWN KENAI
• NEW ROOF
• 1 ACRE ADJOINING LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Not newly constructed; Detached (not attached)
• Construction: Built in 1983; Wood frame (2x6) construction; Shingle/asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covenant/restriction; Fire service area; Road service area; Gravel road access; Waterfront property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 total bathrooms
• Interior features: Basement; Family room; Fireplace; Wood stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($440/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Nikiski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#131 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikiski North Star Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 156 statewide, top 70%, 242 students, 52% FRL); Nikiski Middle/Senior High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #39 of 61 statewide, top 65%, 326 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $161,370 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $420,624
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46090 Fireweed Pl	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,227 (-3%)	7mo	$350,000	$157	74
53600 Redoubt Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,296 (+0%)	14mo	$421,500	$184	60
53315 Foley Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,352 (+3%)	13mo	$455,700	$194	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $25,086
• Equity at exit: $84,983

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $86,036
• Equity at exit: $130,968

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99635

• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,019/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $90	+0% $37	+5% $-17	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $-27	+0% $37	+5% $100	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $85	base $37	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    status Active
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $189,000 Active
19. 2013-06-28
    soldstatus
20. 2012-07-31
    listed $219,000
21. 2001-01-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,019 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$115/yr (+$10/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,019
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$2,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$668
• After-tax cash flow: $1,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Nikiski

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #22928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nikiski, AK
• Population (ZIP): 106

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $189,000 AKMLS
• 2013-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-07-31 Listed $219,000 AKMLS
• 2001-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,019 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.