21602 Grand Bay Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$261,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2000 7,405 sqft lot Est $304k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 story, 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Katy ISD! Master bathroom on the first floor with a great sized game room upstairs. Will not last long! * Never Flooded

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large backyard
• Replaced roof

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• UPDATED AC UNIT
• REPLACED ROOF
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Signature Association Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2000; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Lot about 0.17 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Four total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $261k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morton Ranch H S (math 31% / reading 55%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,718 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 27% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,154 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,447
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4006 Mt Everest Way	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,100 (-1%)	4mo	$295,000	$140	69
3707 Starbridge Pointe Ln	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (-9%)	4mo	$285,000	$148	65
21622 Sandystone Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,912 (-10%)	4mo	$272,500	$143	63
21303 Banks Run Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,920 (-10%)	1mo	$265,000	$138	61
22306 Coffee Mill Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,190 (+3%)	1mo	$375,000	$171	60
3930 Brighton Springs Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (-2%)	3mo	$235,000	$113	59
3923 Bridgebay Ln	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (-11%)	2mo	$237,000	$125	57
3402 Hawkins Glen Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,045 (-4%)	4mo	$335,000	$164	56
3638 Bright Moon Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,225 (+4%)	3mo	$299,900	$135	53
21527 Mt Mckinley Way	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,915 (-10%)	2mo	$325,000	$170	50
21627 Gannet Peak Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,895 (-11%)	3mo	$259,900	$137	44
3114 Sabine Spring Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,857 (-13%)	3mo	$284,999	$153	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-45,333
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-66,731
• Equity at exit: $59,779

Cash invested: $73,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,369
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,328/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,538

Max offer price $216,154

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,250
• Closing costs: $7,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3507 Banks Run Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,806	$0.93	5d	1	0.39mi
3837 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	44d	1	0.52mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,235	$1.39	11d	1	0.62mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 21952 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,192	$1.36	3d	1	0.63mi
21919 Clay Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$3,574	$2.16	1d	1	0.68mi
2723 Durham Chase Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2765	$2,275	$0.82	2d	1	0.73mi
21106 Blackbluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,950	$1.05	5d	1	0.79mi
20911 Hazy Bluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2940	$2,450	$0.83	44d	1	0.80mi
21402 Doral Rose Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,950	$1.05	24d	1	0.87mi
20811 Trenton Valley Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2350	$2,200	$0.94	44d	1	0.92mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	24d	1	0.93mi
3427 W Rainmill Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,850	$1.24	24d	1	1.12mi
3200 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,351	$2.20	2d	30	1.19mi
3206 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,279	$1.48	44d	1	1.21mi
4110 Rapallo Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,600	$1.13	5d	1	1.36mi
3130 Birchleaf Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,840	$1.08	44d	1	1.42mi
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	22d	1	1.44mi
22822 Capitol Landing Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$1,399	$0.82	22d	1	1.47mi
4211 Fair Country Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2342	$2,275	$0.97	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $261,000 Active
2. 2020-02-26
   soldstatus Sold 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story, 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Katy ISD! Master bathroom on the first floor with a great sized game room upstairs. Will not last long! * Never Flooded

3. 2020-02-26
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story, 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Katy ISD! Master bathroom on the first floor with a great sized game room upstairs. Will not last long! * Never Flooded

4. 2020-02-18
   status Pending 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story, 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Katy ISD! Master bathroom on the first floor with a great sized game room upstairs. Will not last long! * Never Flooded

5. 2020-02-14
   status Active 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story, 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Katy ISD! Master bathroom on the first floor with a great sized game room upstairs. Will not last long! * Never Flooded

6. 2020-02-11
   status Option Pending 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story, 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Katy ISD! Master bathroom on the first floor with a great sized game room upstairs. Will not last long! * Never Flooded

7. 2020-02-07
   status Active 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story, 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Katy ISD! Master bathroom on the first floor with a great sized game room upstairs. Will not last long! * Never Flooded

8. 2020-02-04
   status Option Pending 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story, 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Katy ISD! Master bathroom on the first floor with a great sized game room upstairs. Will not last long! * Never Flooded

9. 2020-01-27
   listed $160,000 Active 164-char remark

   Show marketing remark (164 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story, 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Katy ISD! Master bathroom on the first floor with a great sized game room upstairs. Will not last long! * Never Flooded

10. 2006-01-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,328 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,328 · $527/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,620
• − Property taxes: −$6,328
• − Insurance: −$1,305
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − Depreciation: −$7,593
• Taxable loss: −$7,505
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,801
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+63.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $261,000 HARMLS
• 2020-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-02-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-02-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-02-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-01-27 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2006-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,328 · -8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.