306 S Cypress St · Brady, TX 76825

$17,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1940 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located at 306 S Cypress in Brady, Texas, this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath home is a diamond in the rough, requiring a complete renovation to restore its potential. While the interior is in need of significant updates, the home's layout provides a solid foundation for creative redesign. With vision and effort, this property can be transformed into a cozy retreat in a desirable location, making it perfect for investors or those eager to craft their dream home.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $17k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $684 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($993 rent vs $17k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.6% vs local median 3.4% in Brady — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#270 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brady ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #238 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brady El (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 476 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brady ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in McCulloch County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($118 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,745 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 172.42%
• DSCR: 8.67
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,544
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 Poplar Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (-6%)	21mo	$175,000	$119	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.30×
• Total profit: $49,010
• Equity at exit: $11,259

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.10×
• Total profit: $109,937
• Equity at exit: $20,930

Cash invested: $4,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76825

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$89
• Tax from tax record: −$4 /mo · $50/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $127

Max offer price $17,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $694	-5% $689	+0% $684	+5% $679	+10% $674
Rent	-10% $605	-5% $645	+0% $684	+5% $723	+10% $762
Rate	-1.0pp $692	-0.5pp $688	base $684	+0.5pp $680	+1.0pp $675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,250
• Closing costs: $510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-08-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-06
   listed $17,000 Active
3. 2004-04-21
   soldstatus
4. 1999-08-02
   soldstatus
5. 1999-01-30
   soldstatus
6. 1998-09-24
   soldstatus
7. 1996-07-24
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $50 · $4/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $311 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: +$261/yr (+$22/mo · 526.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$952
• − Property taxes: −$50
• − Insurance: −$85
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$953
• − Management: −$953
• − Depreciation: −$495
• Taxable income: $8,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,022
• After-tax cash flow: $6,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brady ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811110
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,179
• Composite: 40.02/100
• National rank: #3826
• State rank: #238 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brady

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #6336

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brady, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,595

Population outlook (McCulloch County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,509 people
• By 2030: 8,544 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 8,555 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 8,486 · -0.3%
• By 2075: 8,089 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 6,599 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · McCulloch

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.4) · D 12.9% · R 86.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.0pp · 2024: -73.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.4 2020: R+70.3 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+51.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.53%
• Current HPI: 161.5061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $17,000 NTREIS
• 2004-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-16.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $50 · -18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.