13204 Warren Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2004 4,356 sqft lot $141/sqft · 18% above area Est $137k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute Starter Home or Investment Property! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a fenced in backyard. Close to shopping, entertaining, and restaurants! Call for a showing today!

Key facts

• Updated baseboards
• New flooring
• Three new sinks

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED BASEBOARDS
• THREE NEW SINKS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car carport; Driveway with concrete surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; House; One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built year: (see public records)
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Slab patio/porch; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms: (see listing for count)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,583 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,962
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 20.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10741 E Bay Tree Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,172 (0%)	8mo	$142,999	$122	86
10589 E Bay Tree Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+2%)	6mo	$152,200	$128	84
10766 E Bay Tree Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,255 (+7%)	8mo	$145,000	$116	76
13375 Lehmann Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+2%)	2mo	$169,900	$142	74
10604 E Bay Tree Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,254 (+7%)	7mo	$169,995	$136	73
504 Harvey Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,144 (-2%)	1mo	$115,000	$101	68
11128 Sonja Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,160 (-1%)	2mo	$158,000	$136	67
13372 Chris Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,137 (-3%)	8mo	$148,000	$130	66
2540 Tandy Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (+4%)	2mo	$155,000	$127	56
2621 W Samuel St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,215 (+4%)	7mo	$160,000	$132	52
2614 George St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-8%)	7mo	$139,900	$130	46
921 Sweetgum Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,023 (-13%)	8mo	$119,000	$116	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,312
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,422
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,477/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13181 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,375	$1.16	43d	1	0.04mi
13242 Warren Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,100	$1.09	43d	1	0.08mi
10596 E Bay Tree Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,200	$1.15	43d	1	0.09mi
10669 E Bay Tree Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,425	$1.19	20d	1	0.09mi
11310 Fairfield Ln Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1084	$1,625	$1.50	43d	1	0.90mi
12271 Dedeaux Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1462	$1,350	$0.92	43d	1	0.95mi
12062 Jessica Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,700	$1.23	13d	1	1.02mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,147	$1.10	43d	1	1.03mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,445	$1.29	13d	1	1.03mi
12147 Prudie Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$975	$0.89	43d	1	1.06mi
12040 Highland Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1019	$950	$0.93	13d	1	1.08mi
11312 Jessica Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,625	$1.49	20d	1	1.09mi
1009 Michelle Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1254	$1,650	$1.32	43d	1	1.22mi
10479 Cal Ln Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1200	$950	$0.79	20d	1	1.42mi
14437 Whitney Dr Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	1.43mi
10471 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	778	$1,050	$1.35	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    listed $170,000 Active 297-char remark
16. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus
17. 2022-03-29
    soldstatus Closed 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Cute Starter Home or Investment Property! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a fenced in backyard. Close to shopping, entertaining, and restaurants! Call for a showing today!

18. 2022-02-03
    historical 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Cute Starter Home or Investment Property! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a fenced in backyard. Close to shopping, entertaining, and restaurants! Call for a showing today!

19. 2022-02-02
    listed $131,000 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    Cute Starter Home or Investment Property! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a fenced in backyard. Close to shopping, entertaining, and restaurants! Call for a showing today!

20. 2005-11-17
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Precious home in Forest North! Only 1.5 yrs old-Clean! Fireplace never been used. Refrigerator remains, smooth top range, neutral colors.

21. 2005-09-15
    listed $110,000

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Precious home in Forest North! Only 1.5 yrs old-Clean! Fireplace never been used. Refrigerator remains, smooth top range, neutral colors.

22. 2004-03-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,477 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,477 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,477
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,388
• − Management: −$1,388
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$425
• After-tax cash flow: $1,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $165,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-26 Listed $170,000 MLSU
• 2022-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-02-03 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-02-02 Listed $131,000 MLSU
• 2005-11-17 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2005-09-15 Listed $110,000 MLSU
• 2004-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,477 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.