1123 Black Bear Ln · Emerald Lakes, PA 18334

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1987 0.48 ac lot Est $288k · at est. $103/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this COMPLETELY RENOVATED HOME with TONS OF NATURAL LIGHT in a desirable Emerald Lakes just minutes from Kalarahi and Camelback. Start MAKING MEMORIES!!! Enjoy summer nights in the privacy of your wrapped around deck. Community offers tons of activities including INDOOR POOL, restaurant and more. Close to Rt 80, shopping, Mt. Airy Casino, minutes away from water parks: Kalahari Resort, Camelbeach, Aquatopia, Camelback Skiing resort, state parks, water sports, hiking, fishing, hunting and more. Buyer's responsibility to do due diligence regarding short term rentals.

Key facts

• Wrapped around deck
• Indoor pool
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED HOME
• WRAPPED AROUND DECK
• INDOOR POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-2
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $1,240

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: 2-story wood-sided home; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Mud room; Family room on main level; Utility room; Vaulted ceilings; Skylights
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#974 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $211,569 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,176
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Ash Drive Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (+2%)	7mo	$385,000	$284	80
249 Clearview Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+1%)	11mo	$325,000	$242	71
915 Cricket Ln	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,260 (-5%)	12mo	$250,000	$198	59
703 Clearview Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+4%)	17mo	$275,000	$199	55
2419 Grey Birch Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-6%)	7mo	$211,000	$169	54
620 Sullivan Trl	0.43mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,440 (+8%)	9mo	$222,000	$154	52
594 Sullivan Trl	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,176 (-11%)	8mo	$255,000	$217	51
640 Sullivan Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,257 (-5%)	20mo	$292,500	$233	45
1109 Bob Cat Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,421 (+7%)	9mo	$301,500	$212	41
103 Eagle View Run	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,350 (+2%)	20mo	$245,000	$181	40
395 Sullivan Trl	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (-14%)	2mo	$260,000	$227	32
300 Cedar Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (-13%)	10mo	$401,000	$347	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,095
• Equity at exit: $72,924

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-44,131
• Equity at exit: $77,215

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18334

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,900/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$103
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,579

Max offer price $234,374

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-281	+0% $-366	+5% $-450	+10% $-535
Rent	-10% $-533	-5% $-449	+0% $-366	+5% $-282	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-215	-0.5pp $-290	base $-366	+0.5pp $-443	+1.0pp $-522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $103 · $1,236/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $299,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $299,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-05-28
    listed $299,000 Active 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Check out this COMPLETELY RENOVATED HOME with TONS OF NATURAL LIGHT in a desirable Emerald Lakes just minutes from Kalarahi and Camelback. Start MAKING MEMORIES!!! Enjoy summer nights in the privacy of your wrapped around deck. Community offers tons of activities including INDOOR POOL, restaurant and more. Close to Rt 80, shopping, Mt. Airy Casino, minutes away from water parks: Kalahari Resort, Camelbeach, Aquatopia, Camelback Skiing resort, state parks, water sports, hiking, fishing, hunting and more. Buyer's responsibility to do due diligence regarding short term rentals.

11. 2026-04-24
    listed $299,000 Active
12. 2025-04-13
    historical $2,000
13. 2025-04-01
    soldstatus $275,000
14. 2025-03-31
    listed $2,000
15. 2025-03-28
    soldstatus $275,000 Closed 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, perfectly situated in amenity filled STR friendly Community near top Pocono attractions! This bright and spacious retreat boasts a brand-new kitchen with elegant granite countertops, perfect for cooking and entertaining. Cozy up by the charming woodstove on chilly evenings, or enjoy the home's inviting atmosphere with wild nature around. Whether you're looking for a peaceful getaway or a home near major roads and attractions, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. As big plus you'll have new roof and skylights , downstairs bedroom with own blcony, perfect large deck , low property tax and much more to offer

16. 2025-03-05
    status Pending 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, perfectly situated in amenity filled STR friendly Community near top Pocono attractions! This bright and spacious retreat boasts a brand-new kitchen with elegant granite countertops, perfect for cooking and entertaining. Cozy up by the charming woodstove on chilly evenings, or enjoy the home's inviting atmosphere with wild nature around. Whether you're looking for a peaceful getaway or a home near major roads and attractions, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. As big plus you'll have new roof and skylights , downstairs bedroom with own blcony, perfect large deck , low property tax and much more to offer

17. 2025-02-10
    price $299,900 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, perfectly situated in amenity filled STR friendly Community near top Pocono attractions! This bright and spacious retreat boasts a brand-new kitchen with elegant granite countertops, perfect for cooking and entertaining. Cozy up by the charming woodstove on chilly evenings, or enjoy the home's inviting atmosphere with wild nature around. Whether you're looking for a peaceful getaway or a home near major roads and attractions, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. As big plus you'll have new roof and skylights , downstairs bedroom with own blcony, perfect large deck , low property tax and much more to offer

18. 2025-01-31
    listed $329,900 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, perfectly situated in amenity filled STR friendly Community near top Pocono attractions! This bright and spacious retreat boasts a brand-new kitchen with elegant granite countertops, perfect for cooking and entertaining. Cozy up by the charming woodstove on chilly evenings, or enjoy the home's inviting atmosphere with wild nature around. Whether you're looking for a peaceful getaway or a home near major roads and attractions, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. As big plus you'll have new roof and skylights , downstairs bedroom with own blcony, perfect large deck , low property tax and much more to offer

19. 2004-06-03
    soldstatus $108,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,812 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: +$912/yr (+$76/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,900
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$9,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,340
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Emerald Lakes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #974
• US rank: #10662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emerald Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,907

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 178.5307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+176.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $299,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $299,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-04-13 Rental Removed $2,000 PMAR
• 2025-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-31 Listed for Rent $2,000 PMAR
• 2025-03-28 Sold (MLS) $275,000 PMAR
• 2025-03-05 Pending — PMAR
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $299,900 PMAR
• 2025-01-31 Listed $329,900 PMAR
• 2004-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,900 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.