2901 Mariana Ave · Midland, TX 79701

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1955 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great price for this 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Close to schools and shopping.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Lot approximately 0.255 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lamar El (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 497 students, 84% FRL); San Jacinto J H (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 829 students, 54% FRL); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,190
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2907 Mariana Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+6%)	8mo	$85,500	$66	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,448
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,120
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79701

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,593/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,563

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2812 Mariana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1443	$1,750	$1.21	43d	1	0.03mi
3100 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,400	$1.85	43d	1	0.05mi
2704 Delano Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,900	$1.56	44d	1	0.18mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 110 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	13d	1	0.43mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 101 Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,350	$1.11	43d	1	0.43mi
2910 W Michigan Ave Unit 110 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,250	$1.28	43d	1	0.43mi
3007 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,079	$1.17	20d	1	0.47mi
2901 W Louisiana Ave Unit 3 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,090	$1.18	43d	1	0.49mi
3403 Thomas Ave Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1472	$2,000	$1.36	13d	1	0.49mi
2805 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$2,400	$2.04	20d	1	0.51mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	43d	1	0.52mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 221 Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	43d	1	0.53mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 216 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,050	$1.11	43d	1	0.53mi
2928 W Louisiana Ave Unit 213 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	43d	1	0.53mi
2929 W Kansas Ave Unit 317 Midland, TX	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,200	$1.14	43d	1	0.57mi
2929 W Kansas Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	43d	1	0.57mi
2705 W Kentucky Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	20d	1	0.63mi
705 Ainslee St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,900	$1.66	20d	1	0.68mi
2605 W Washington Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	865	$1,500	$1.73	20d	1	0.72mi
3506 Apache Dr Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,800	$1.79	20d	1	0.77mi
3311 Storey Ave Midland, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	13d	1	0.78mi
2111 W Kentucky Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	981	$1,400	$1.43	20d	1	0.86mi
3811 Cedar Spring Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	43d	1	0.96mi
4000 W Illinois Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,545	$2.05	20d	10	1.07mi
3712 Amelia Dr Midland, TX	3.0	1.0	1046	$2,000	$1.91	20d	1	1.11mi
509 Delmar St Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1116	$1,796	$1.61	13d	8	1.24mi
1402 W Tennessee Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,500	$2.38	43d	1	1.26mi
1210 W Texas Ave Unit 15 Midland, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	43d	1	1.30mi
4313 Storey Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	43d	1	1.36mi
4409 Roosevelt Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,750	$1.42	44d	1	1.45mi
4403 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,800	$1.69	20d	1	1.47mi
4405 Crockett Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 268-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   price $180,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $215,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    remarks 251-char remark
12. 2026-06-09
    listed $215,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,593 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$701/yr (+$58/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,593
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$70
• After-tax cash flow: $2,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,131
• Household income: $57,346
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 938.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 28% White 27% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.32%
• Current HPI: 234.6111
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+117.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $215,000 PBBOR
• 2017-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-04-22 Listed $99,000 ODMLS
• 2014-04-16 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2009-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,593 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.