18298 W Smokey Dr · Surprise, AZ 85388

$355,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,543 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2006 8,318 sqft lot Est $537k · 34% under $95/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous home waiting for you. Get ready to fall in love. This is a formal model home and still looks like a model home. So you'll really have to see this one in person. 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 baths. Tons of room in the back yard for a future swimming pool and a covered patio. Beautiful stone trim on the front of home. You'll love your kitchen with granite counters and kitchen island, upgraded cabinetry, and being very well lit. Master bath suite offers separate garden tub & shower and double sink vanity with lots of drawers. The master bedroom has his and hers closets! Fantastic loft area too. Like we said you'll love this gem. The downstairs den has a beautiful built-in desk. The garage also has nice cabinets to store all your stuff. There's also an access door to the side of the home from the garage. This home will not last so come check it out ASAP!! Thanks for stopping in

Key facts

• Former model home
• Cul-de-sac lot
• Spacious bonus room

Tags

• FORMER MODEL HOME
• SPACIOUS BONUS ROOM
• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• ABUNDANCE OF BACKYARD SPACE
• NUMEROUS CABINETS FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing noted
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $285; Association covers grounds maintenance; Association rules prohibit visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener and attached garage cabinets
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Desert front landscaping; Cul-de-sac lot; Gravel/stone in back yard; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in master; Separate shower and tub; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Upstairs location mentioned
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Upstairs laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View (math 44% / reading 49%, grade D-, #324 of 1,109 statewide, top 30%, 943 students, 27% FRL); Cimarron Springs Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 589 students, 35% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,231 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $536,573
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16475 N 183rd Dr	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,645 (+4%)	5mo	$380,000	$144	75
18109 W Bridger St	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,285 (-10%)	4mo	$450,000	$197	65
18548 W Sunbelt Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,509 (-1%)	6mo	$335,251	$134	63
18328 W Saguaro Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,519 (-1%)	2mo	$388,250	$154	58
17407 N Goldwater Dr	0.29mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,279 (-10%)	7mo	$519,000	$228	54
18349 W Marshall Ln W	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (-5%)	2mo	$599,000	$249	50
18334 W Marshall Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,803 (+10%)	3mo	$799,990	$285	50
18472 W Marshall Ln	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (-5%)	3mo	$590,000	$245	49
18495 W Rimrock St	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,408 (-5%)	7mo	$679,000	$282	46
18467 W Statler St	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,847 (+12%)	3mo	$600,000	$211	46
18193 W Saguaro Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,726 (+7%)	4mo	$435,000	$160	39
18390 W Hayden Dr	0.60mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,882 (+13%)	1mo	$455,000	$158	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-25,684
• Equity at exit: $108,156

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-16,009
• Equity at exit: $134,131

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,653/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,838

Max offer price $320,656

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-94	+0% $-194	+5% $-295	+10% $-395
Rent	-10% $-399	-5% $-297	+0% $-194	+5% $-92	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-16	-0.5pp $-104	base $-194	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18272 W Bridger St Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,145	$0.94	44d	1	0.16mi
17110 N 184th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,460	$0.92	3d	1	0.20mi
17110 N 184th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,790	$1.05	44d	1	0.20mi
17115 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2096	$1,995	$0.95	44d	1	0.27mi
17325 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2275	$2,015	$0.89	44d	1	0.34mi
16367 N 183rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2398	$6,500	$2.71	44d	1	0.34mi
17421 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1898	$1,855	$0.98	13d	1	0.39mi
18188 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1941	$2,200	$1.13	44d	1	0.44mi
17593 N 185th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2661	$2,695	$1.01	2d	1	0.47mi
18096 W Paradise Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,315	$1.12	44d	1	0.51mi
16124 N 180th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2958	$2,795	$0.94	6d	1	0.56mi
18068 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2273	$2,100	$0.92	5d	1	0.56mi
17774 W Bridger St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2263	$2,150	$0.95	6d	1	0.68mi
18374 W Weatherby Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2631	$2,295	$0.87	44d	1	0.70mi
18089 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2313	$2,101	$0.91	25d	1	0.76mi
17722 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,185	$1.24	2d	1	0.90mi
17867 W Westpark Blvd Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1767	$3,500	$1.98	44d	1	0.93mi
17573 W Lundberg St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,265	$1.00	2d	1	0.97mi
17573 W Lundberg St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,290	$1.02	4d	1	0.97mi
17610 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2149	$2,150	$1.00	5d	1	1.03mi
18515 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2254	$2,300	$1.02	6d	1	1.04mi
15225 N 185th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.5	2941	$5,000	$1.70	22d	1	1.07mi
17932 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2635	$2,195	$0.83	44d	1	1.09mi
17862 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,600	$1.47	19d	1	1.12mi
17912 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$2,155	$1.00	18d	1	1.15mi
17818 W Acapulco Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,045	$1.06	44d	1	1.20mi
17753 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2453	$2,245	$0.92	25d	1	1.22mi
17938 W Port Royale Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1775	$2,149	$1.21	6d	1	1.24mi
17259 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,150	$0.98	6d	1	1.24mi
16444 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,795	$1.22	12d	1	1.32mi
17315 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,500	$1.05	11d	1	1.36mi
17331 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,295	$0.96	44d	1	1.36mi
15512 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2147	$3,000	$1.40	44d	1	1.37mi
17272 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,085	$1.04	44d	1	1.38mi
16003 N Cristine Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,200	$0.92	44d	1	1.44mi
17440 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2159	$2,300	$1.07	3d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $355,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $355,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $355,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $355,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $355,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $355,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $355,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $355,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 683-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $355,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,653 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,343 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$690/yr (+$57/mo · 41.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$1,653
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,489
• − Management: −$2,489
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$8,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,076
• After-tax cash flow: $-257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+22.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $355,000 ARMLS
• 2018-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) $265,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-06-26 Price Changed $270,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-21 Price Changed $281,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-15 Price Changed $287,900 ARMLS
• 2018-05-31 Price Changed $290,000 ARMLS
• 2018-05-03 Price Changed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2018-03-23 Listed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2008-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $203,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-15 Sold (MLS) $217,000 ARMLS
• 2008-09-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-08-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-08-11 Listed $213,500 ARMLS
• 2008-06-27 Listed $249,990 ARMLS
• 2006-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $295,113 Public Records
• 2006-06-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $483,750 Public Records
• 2005-11-18 Listed $289,950 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,653 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.