406 Main St · Garden City, MO 64747

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,371 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1935 10,454 sqft lot Est $251k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 1,371-square-foot property located at 406 Main St in the heart of Garden City, MO. Featuring a comfortable and practical layout, this home offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and spacious living areas perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently situated near local amenities, it provides a wonderful opportunity for anyone looking to settle into a welcoming neighborhood. Schedule your tour today to explore everything this lovely home and vibrant community have to offer!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area about 1,371 (per public records)
• Financial info: $907 tax annual amount
• HOA & community: No association fees; No maintenance provided

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Ranch style; One story (ranch)
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Home age: approximately 76–100 years
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 0.24 acres; Not in a flood plain

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling (has cooling)
• Interior features: Ranch floor plan; Basement (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#415 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Sherwood Cass R-VIII (rural): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #138 of 324 in MO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 588 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $753 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,240 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.32%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,893
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Ivy St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-7%)	2mo	$115,000	$90	77
107 Date St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,416 (+3%)	7mo	$190,000	$134	75
602 Main St	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,226 (-11%)	10mo	$120,000	$98	64
202 W 2nd St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,362 (-1%)	13mo	$249,700	$183	63
1001 Orchid St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-2%)	2mo	$319,000	$236	63
413 10th St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-5%)	14mo	$245,000	$188	54
208 W 2nd St	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,500 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$217	53
809 Beulah St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+8%)	12mo	$265,000	$178	51
109 Sharon Ln	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-12%)	12mo	$219,500	$183	49
109 S State Route F N/A	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+14%)	8mo	$215,000	$137	47
97 Pioneer St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,186 (-14%)	2mo	$242,000	$204	44
903 S Ash St	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-15%)	8mo	$225,000	$192	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,094
• Equity at exit: $41,530

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $38,844
• Equity at exit: $53,074

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64747

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $907/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $168	+0% $131	+5% $94	+10% $58
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $84	+0% $131	+5% $178	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $164	base $131	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 512-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $129,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $907 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$353/yr (+$29/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$907
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$142
• After-tax cash flow: $1,715/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherwood Cass R-VIII
• NCES district ID: 2910320
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,052
• Composite: 34.52/100
• National rank: #5177
• State rank: #138 of 324 in MO

Livability — Garden City

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #17405

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden City, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,066

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,292 people
• By 2030: 106,109 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 105,786 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 102,062 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 88,569 · -15.9%
• By 2100: 68,293 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.3% · R 65.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+35.9 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Current HPI: 358.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $129,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $907 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.