215 Tolman Creek Rd Spc 31 · Ashland, OR 97520

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Land public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1987 $92/sqft · 45% above area Est $103k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to easy living in one of the most desirable parks in Ashland! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home features a smart split floor plan that offers both comfort & privacy. The spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, creating a relaxing retreat with plenty of storage. The interior shines with updated appliances & pride of ownership throughout, while the huge family room steals the show with a wall of windows that fills the space with natural light & showcases views of the pleasant back garden sitting area, & the park's inviting green space. It's an ideal spot for morning coffee, quiet relaxation, or entertaining guests. Practical features add even more appeal, including covered parking in the carport & convenient guest parking at the front door. On a corner lot, so there's only one neighbor! Enjoy a welcoming community atmosphere, serene surroundings, & a home that blends comfort, functionality, & charm in a picturesque park setting.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Huge family room
• Wall of windows

Tags

• SMART SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• HUGE FAMILY ROOM
• WALL OF WINDOWS
• PLEASANT BACK GARDEN
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $947 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.1% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#42 in OR, #1,019 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Ashland SD 5 (suburban): math 59% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #5 of 183 in OR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $149k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.24%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,813
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 44.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $33,050
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $93,958
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97520

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,133/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $947

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,187

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,031	-5% $989	+0% $947	+5% $905	+10% $863
Rent	-10% $759	-5% $853	+0% $947	+5% $1,041	+10% $1,136
Rate	-1.0pp $1,022	-0.5pp $985	base $947	+0.5pp $908	+1.0pp $869

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Crocker St Ashland, OR	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,350	$1.46	44d	1	0.15mi
2221 Dollarhide Way Ashland, OR	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,350	$1.41	21d	1	0.20mi
2976 Grizzly Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,350	$1.74	21d	1	0.63mi
593 Oak Knoll Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,600	$1.62	14d	1	0.72mi
791 Faith Ave Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,600	$1.83	21d	1	0.74mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	14d	1	0.75mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	44d	1	0.75mi
732 Normal Ave Unit 732 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1111	$1,895	$1.71	14d	1	0.75mi
826 Park St Unit 826 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1234	$1,995	$1.62	21d	1	0.80mi
2555 Spring Hill Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,300	$1.48	44d	1	0.80mi
2370 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1252	$1,995	$1.59	14d	1	0.96mi
139 N Wightman St Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,250	$1.85	44d	1	1.16mi
93 California St Ashland, OR	3.0	1.0	1132	$2,095	$1.85	21d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1038-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

   Welcome home to easy living in one of the most desirable parks in Ashland! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home features a smart split floor plan that offers both comfort & privacy. The spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, creating a relaxing retreat with plenty of storage. The interior shines with updated appliances & pride of ownership throughout, while the huge family room steals the show with a wall of windows that fills the space with natural light & showcases views of the pleasant back garden sitting area, & the park's inviting green space. It's an ideal spot for morning coffee, quiet relaxation, or entertaining guests. Practical features add even more appeal, including covered parking in the carport & convenient guest parking at the front door. On a corner lot, so there's only one neighbor! Enjoy a welcoming community atmosphere, serene surroundings, & a home that blends comfort, functionality, & charm in a picturesque park setting.

2. 2026-04-21
   price $149,000 1038-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

   Welcome home to easy living in one of the most desirable parks in Ashland! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home features a smart split floor plan that offers both comfort & privacy. The spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, creating a relaxing retreat with plenty of storage. The interior shines with updated appliances & pride of ownership throughout, while the huge family room steals the show with a wall of windows that fills the space with natural light & showcases views of the pleasant back garden sitting area, & the park's inviting green space. It's an ideal spot for morning coffee, quiet relaxation, or entertaining guests. Practical features add even more appeal, including covered parking in the carport & convenient guest parking at the front door. On a corner lot, so there's only one neighbor! Enjoy a welcoming community atmosphere, serene surroundings, & a home that blends comfort, functionality, & charm in a picturesque park setting.

3. 2026-03-06
   listed $155,000 Active 1038-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

   Welcome home to easy living in one of the most desirable parks in Ashland! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home features a smart split floor plan that offers both comfort & privacy. The spacious primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, creating a relaxing retreat with plenty of storage. The interior shines with updated appliances & pride of ownership throughout, while the huge family room steals the show with a wall of windows that fills the space with natural light & showcases views of the pleasant back garden sitting area, & the park's inviting green space. It's an ideal spot for morning coffee, quiet relaxation, or entertaining guests. Practical features add even more appeal, including covered parking in the carport & convenient guest parking at the front door. On a corner lot, so there's only one neighbor! Enjoy a welcoming community atmosphere, serene surroundings, & a home that blends comfort, functionality, & charm in a picturesque park setting.

4. 2009-04-28
   soldstatus $75,000 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Here It Is! The most 'un-mobile' home in Ashland's Premiere Tolman Creek Estates. This large home is on a corner space next to the park. This home has had extensive upgrading and is the picture of elegance. Huge open floor plan, skylights, bay windows, island kitchen, fenced rear yard, 2 sheds, double sliding doors off dining room and beautifully rich interiors. Truly the nicest home in the nicest park.

5. 2009-01-05
   listed $79,900 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Here It Is! The most 'un-mobile' home in Ashland's Premiere Tolman Creek Estates. This large home is on a corner space next to the park. This home has had extensive upgrading and is the picture of elegance. Huge open floor plan, skylights, bay windows, island kitchen, fenced rear yard, 2 sheds, double sliding doors off dining room and beautifully rich interiors. Truly the nicest home in the nicest park.

6. 2007-06-01
   soldstatus $74,500
7. 2007-05-10
   listed $77,000
8. 2005-07-14
   soldstatus $77,700
9. 2005-05-24
   listed $69,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,133 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$312/yr (+$26/mo · 27.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,133
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,291
• − Management: −$2,291
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $9,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,278
• After-tax cash flow: $9,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland SD 5
• NCES district ID: 4101560
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,917
• Composite: 57.0/100
• National rank: #2358
• State rank: #5 of 183 in OR

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #1019

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, OR
• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 26,512
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 26,512
• Household income: $67,948
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1727.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.69%
• Current HPI: 231.9587
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+113.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $149,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-06 Listed $155,000 MLSCO
• 2009-04-28 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MLSCO
• 2009-01-05 Listed $79,900 MLSCO
• 2007-06-01 Sold (MLS) $74,500 MLSCO
• 2007-05-10 Listed $77,000 MLSCO
• 2005-07-14 Sold (MLS) $77,700 MLSCO
• 2005-05-24 Listed $69,700 MLSCO

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,133 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.