138 Sienna Dr · Alvord, TX 76225

$249,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2025 6,534 sqft lot $139/sqft · 12% below area Est $285k · 12% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21190898 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1804-1 A1 - Monroe The Monroe Plan from our Liberty Series combines thoughtful design and everyday functionality, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-planned living space. This single-story home features a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. At the front of the home, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room. A versatile flex room near the main living area offers the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or sitting area. The bright and open kitchen is the heart of the Monroe Plan, complete with an island and a clear view of the dining area and spacious family room. The primary suite is tucked away on the opposite side of the home, offering a private retreat with a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Alvord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#402 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvord ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #102 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,802 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,009
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -12.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
167 Sienna Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,804 (0%)	1mo	$241,990	$134	97
302 E Washington St	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,780 (-1%)	1mo	$260,000	$146	83
104 Ashley St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (+1%)	11mo	$319,900	$175	74
112 Brooke Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,804 (0%)	11mo	$266,990	$148	67
137 Brooke Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,804 (0%)	12mo	$239,990	$133	66
131 Sienna Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,804 (0%)	13mo	$264,990	$147	66
138 N Fm 1655	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+4%)	1mo	$499,000	$267	62
127 Sienna Dr	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (0%)	10mo	$229,990	$127	59
132 Brooke Dr	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (0%)	12mo	$224,990	$125	57
406 W Franklin St	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,780 (-1%)	3mo	$225,000	$126	52
110 W State St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (-11%)	8mo	$329,900	$205	39
708 North Denver St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-13%)	12mo	$355,000	$226	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-59,040
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-75,197
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76225

• Home prices YoY: -8.0%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,818 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $207,826

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   status $249,990 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   MLS# 21190898 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1804-1 A1 - Monroe The Monroe Plan from our Liberty Series combines thoughtful design and everyday functionality, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-planned living space. This single-story home features a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. At the front of the home, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room. A versatile flex room near the main living area offers the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or sitting area. The bright and open kitchen is the heart of the Monroe Plan, complete with an island and a clear view of the dining area and spacious family room. The primary suite is tucked away on the opposite side of the home, offering a private retreat with a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom.

8. 2026-03-11
   price $249,990 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   MLS# 21190898 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1804-1 A1 - Monroe The Monroe Plan from our Liberty Series combines thoughtful design and everyday functionality, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-planned living space. This single-story home features a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. At the front of the home, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room. A versatile flex room near the main living area offers the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or sitting area. The bright and open kitchen is the heart of the Monroe Plan, complete with an island and a clear view of the dining area and spacious family room. The primary suite is tucked away on the opposite side of the home, offering a private retreat with a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom.

9. 2026-03-06
   price $269,990 886-char remark

   Show marketing remark (886 chars)

   MLS# 21190898 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1804-1 A1 - Monroe The Monroe Plan from our Liberty Series combines thoughtful design and everyday functionality, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-planned living space. This single-story home features a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. At the front of the home, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room. A versatile flex room near the main living area offers the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or sitting area. The bright and open kitchen is the heart of the Monroe Plan, complete with an island and a clear view of the dining area and spacious family room. The primary suite is tucked away on the opposite side of the home, offering a private retreat with a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom.

10. 2026-02-25
    listed $272,211 Active 886-char remark

    Show marketing remark (886 chars)

    MLS# 21190898 - Built by NHC - Jul 2026 completion! ~ Model 1804-1 A1 - Monroe The Monroe Plan from our Liberty Series combines thoughtful design and everyday functionality, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-planned living space. This single-story home features a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. At the front of the home, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room. A versatile flex room near the main living area offers the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or sitting area. The bright and open kitchen is the heart of the Monroe Plan, complete with an island and a clear view of the dining area and spacious family room. The primary suite is tucked away on the opposite side of the home, offering a private retreat with a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$7,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,908
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvord ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808100
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $57,194
• Composite: 47.65/100
• National rank: #2246
• State rank: #102 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvord

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #8338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alvord, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,311

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.95%
• Current HPI: 251.2254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $249,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $269,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $272,211 NTREIS