19 Viewmont Rd · Taconic Shores, NY 12521

$450,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition 0.95 ac lot Est $583k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One level living in this 1,592 sq ft home that could be offered 'turn-key'. 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. The open kitchen, living, and dining areas create an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. Attached is the bright and airy 440 sq ft three-season room, which offers the perfect spot to watch nesting birds and enjoy the surrounding landscape. A stone wall marks the rear of the property. Additional features include a deck, lush lawn, mature plantings, shed and a one-car garage in the basement level. Located on a cul-de-sac that is maintained by the town of Copake, the home includes Andersen double-hung and crank-out windows, a bay window, and a mix of ceramic tile, parquet, and

Key facts

• Stone wall
• Three season room
• Deck

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN KITCHEN LIVING DINING
• THREE SEASON ROOM
• STONE WALL
• DECK
• LUSH LAWN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (heated); 1 garage space; Paved driveway, outside parking available; Basement access to parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service; Cable available and connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property; Has a view
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Few trees in front yard; Stone fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Parquet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the main level; Bay windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Full unfinished basement with storage and walk-out/walk-up access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $450k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $443k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $443,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.62%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $582,672
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
720 Center Hill Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-0%)	23mo	$775,000	$488	76
8 Fairview Dr	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,762 (+11%)	0mo	$349,000	$198	74
1250 Lake View Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-0%)	18mo	$580,000	$366	62
1174 Lakeview Rd	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,766 (+11%)	6mo	$575,000	$326	62
1256 Lakeview Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-8%)	5mo	$640,000	$436	59
3 Island Dr	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,559 (-2%)	12mo	$495,000	$318	51
1024 Lakeview Rd	0.52mi	3/3.0	1,704 (+7%)	8mo	$700,000	$411	51
1264 Lakeview Rd	0.47mi	3/—	1,792 (+13%)	19mo	$475,000	$265	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $356,309
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.64×
• Total profit: $962,060
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,145 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,750/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,291
• Net cashflow: $1,745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,937

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $450,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $450,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $450,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,750
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,899
• − Management: −$5,899
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable income: $14,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,515
• After-tax cash flow: $17,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior comfort, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean carpets — Improves comfort and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean carpets — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Taconic Shores

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taconic Shores, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $450,000 HVCRMLS