4210 S Chestnut St · Lufkin, TX 75901

$157,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1920 0.54 ac lot $165/sqft · 9% below area Est $173k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Lufkin ISD situated on a spacious 1/2 acre lot! This home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Interior features include all new windows, sheetrock, insulation, flooring, trim, fresh paint, and updated lighting and ceiling fans. The kitchen is beautifully finished with new cabinets, quartz countertops, and a gas range. The bathroom has been fully updated with a new tub, vanity, and toilet. Major upgrades include all new electrical and plumbing throughout the home. Exterior updates include new James Hardie siding, fresh paint, and a roof that is only 3 years old with 30-year architectural shingles. Enjoy the oversized covered back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is ready for move in! Call your favorite agent today to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Spacious lot
• New cabinets

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• NEW CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.6% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,319 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.81%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,578
• List price: $157,000
• Delta: -9.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,587
• Equity at exit: $23,409

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,127
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75901

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,343/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $157,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Champions Dr Lufkin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	871	$1,224	$1.40	14d	10	1.27mi
3000 S 1st St Lufkin, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$1,232	$1.33	44d	7	1.36mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $157,000 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $157,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $157,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $157,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $157,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   status Active 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Lufkin ISD situated on a spacious 1/2 acre lot! This home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Interior features include all new windows, sheetrock, insulation, flooring, trim, fresh paint, and updated lighting and ceiling fans. The kitchen is beautifully finished with new cabinets, quartz countertops, and a gas range. The bathroom has been fully updated with a new tub, vanity, and toilet. Major upgrades include all new electrical and plumbing throughout the home. Exterior updates include new James Hardie siding, fresh paint, and a roof that is only 3 years old with 30-year architectural shingles. Enjoy the oversized covered back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is ready for move in! Call your favorite agent today to schedule a showing!

7. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Lufkin ISD situated on a spacious 1/2 acre lot! This home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Interior features include all new windows, sheetrock, insulation, flooring, trim, fresh paint, and updated lighting and ceiling fans. The kitchen is beautifully finished with new cabinets, quartz countertops, and a gas range. The bathroom has been fully updated with a new tub, vanity, and toilet. Major upgrades include all new electrical and plumbing throughout the home. Exterior updates include new James Hardie siding, fresh paint, and a roof that is only 3 years old with 30-year architectural shingles. Enjoy the oversized covered back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is ready for move in! Call your favorite agent today to schedule a showing!

8. 2026-04-02
   listed $157,000 Active 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Completely remodeled 3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Lufkin ISD situated on a spacious 1/2 acre lot! This home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Interior features include all new windows, sheetrock, insulation, flooring, trim, fresh paint, and updated lighting and ceiling fans. The kitchen is beautifully finished with new cabinets, quartz countertops, and a gas range. The bathroom has been fully updated with a new tub, vanity, and toilet. Major upgrades include all new electrical and plumbing throughout the home. Exterior updates include new James Hardie siding, fresh paint, and a roof that is only 3 years old with 30-year architectural shingles. Enjoy the oversized covered back porch, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is ready for move in! Call your favorite agent today to schedule a showing!

9. 2021-09-30
   soldstatus
10. 2012-07-24
    soldstatus
11. 1994-01-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,343 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,873 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,530/yr (+$128/mo · 114.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$1,343
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,385
• − Management: −$1,385
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable loss: −$942
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$226
• After-tax cash flow: $1,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lufkin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,009
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5625
• State rank: #446 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lufkin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #5792

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lufkin, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• City population: 62,696
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,234
• Household income: $62,966
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 930.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.13%
• Current HPI: 232.6282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $157,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2021-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,343 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.