713 Lily Rd · Saw Creek, PA 18302

$255,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1992 10,018 sqft lot Est $197k · 30% over $73/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath Ranch in Monroe Lakes Development. Deck and gazebo add extra outdoor entertaining areas. New 2 car garage and 2 car canopy.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private-maintained road and private road frontage; Lot is level, cleared with few trees (0.23 acres)
• HOA & community: Part of an HOA (Monroe Lakes); HOA amenities include clubhouse, playground, basketball court, and security; HOA fee $880 annually (about $73.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Total 8 parking spaces; Detached 2-car garage; Detached 2-car carport; Driveway; Garage faces front; 4 open parking spaces
• Security: Community security (HOA amenity)
• Utilities: Water from a well; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property; Residential zoning
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Gazebo; Poultry coop; Shed(s); Covered wrap-around porch with side porch and patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Ductless heating; Ductless cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $179k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.51%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,560
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
619 Koritia Rd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,224 (+12%)	12mo	$210,000	$172	68
340 Carnation Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	12mo	$293,000	$235	52
2542 Castor Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+2%)	21mo	$200,000	$180	50
2313 Elmhurst Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,181 (+8%)	10mo	$111,000	$94	48
6155 W Lakeshore Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,249 (+14%)	18mo	$275,199	$220	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-16,608
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $17,515
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,226/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$73
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,260

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6281 Lakeshore Dr E East Stroudsburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,750	$1.90	43d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $73 · $876/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $255,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-05
    listed $255,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,226 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,628 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: +$401/yr (+$33/mo · 12.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,226
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − HOA: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$154
• After-tax cash flow: $4,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+218.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $255,000 PMAR
• 2021-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-18 Sold (MLS) $179,000 LCAR
• 2020-12-14 Listed $179,000 LCAR
• 2002-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 1992-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,226 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.