4923 E Camino Principal -- #11 · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 245 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1997 Average condition $61/sqft · 62% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.7

Listing remarks MLS

House sits on a corner lot with rose bushes in front, 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, deck in front for enjoying mountains and sunsets. Washer and dryer stay with home, most rooms have a ceiling fan, there are mini blinds and rolling shades in windows. Primary bathroom has a soaking tub, security door on front and back doors, floors are engineered wood and carpet. Located in a small manufactured home park that is quiet and quant.

Key facts

• Ceiling fan
• Soaking tub
• Mini blinds

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DECK IN FRONT
• SOAKING TUB
• SECURITY DOOR
• CEILING FAN
• MINI BLINDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huachuca Mountain Elementary School (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D-, #334 of 1,109 statewide, top 30%, 416 students, 34% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.94%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,541
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -61.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4501 E Anderson St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,154 (+0%)	4mo	$175,000	$152	78
4833 E Kevin St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,154 (+0%)	10mo	$175,000	$152	64
4978 E Kensington St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,149 (-0%)	11mo	$198,000	$172	63
5430 S San Paulo Ave	0.96mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	4mo	$190,000	$158	55
5508 S San Juan Ave	0.99mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-3%)	7mo	$200,000	$178	55
4540 S San Pedro Ave	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+13%)	15mo	$208,000	$160	45
5085 E Clearview Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+19%)	8mo	$200,000	$146	40
4132 S San Pedro Ave	0.79mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,058 (-8%)	12mo	$135,000	$128	32
5354 S Campobello Ave	0.78mi	3/2.0	1,347 (+17%)	16mo	$199,900	$148	27
4348 E Gardner St	0.76mi	2/2.0 (-1)	926 (-20%)	14mo	$159,000	$172	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $31,223
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $82,040
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $174,500 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 141 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $716	-5% $692	+0% $668	+5% $644	+10% $619
Rent	-10% $553	-5% $610	+0% $668	+5% $725	+10% $783
Rate	-1.0pp $703	-0.5pp $686	base $668	+0.5pp $650	+1.0pp $631

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $69,900 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $69,900 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $69,900 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $69,900 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $69,900 Active 237 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $69,900 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $69,900 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $69,900 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $69,900 Active 231 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $69,900 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $69,900 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $69,900 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $69,900 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $69,900 Active 224 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $69,900 Active 222 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $69,900 Active 221 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $69,900 Active 220 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $69,900 Active 219 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $69,900 Active 218 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $69,900 Active 217 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $69,900 Active 216 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $69,900 Active 215 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 214 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 213 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $69,900 Active 212 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 211 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 210 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 209 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 208 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 207 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 206 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $69,900 Active 205 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $69,900 Active 204 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $69,900 Active 203 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $69,900 Active 202 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $69,900 Active 201 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $69,900 Active 198 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $69,900 Active 197 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $69,900 Active 195 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $69,900 Active 194 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $69,900 Active 193 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $69,900 Active 192 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $69,900 Active 191 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $69,900 Active 189 DOM
47. 2026-06-12
    days on market $69,900 Active 188 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $69,900 Active 185 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 184 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 183 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,398
• − Management: −$1,398
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $7,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $6,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,760–$17,280 screening

This manufactured home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Lighting — Ceiling fans and chandeliers need cleaning
• Minor Exterior paint — Light blue siding has some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with modern options — Enhances kitchen appeal ↑
• Resale Replace dated tile with modern options — Enhances bathroom appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huachuca Mountain Elementary School D- AZ #334/1,109 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Joyce Clark Middle School F AZ #70/218 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Buena High School F AZ #202/381 Nat'l #13,437/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 113,402 people
• City population: 14,154
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $69,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $75,000 ARMLS