1804 Kelly Dr · Jacksonville, AR 72076

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1984 5,227 sqft lot $128/sqft · 15% below area Est $140k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turn-key one-level home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. Updates in 2026 include a new roof, interior and exterior paint, new carpet, updated fixtures, new windows and landscaping. Ideal for a primary residence or investment property. Conveniently located approximately 4 miles from Little Rock Air Force Base and close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. No seller disclosure on file. Agents see remarks.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#231 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Jacksonville North Pulaski School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #211 of 238 in AR (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,006 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $120k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,676 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,378
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -14.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Northeastern Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	960 (+3%)	2mo	$100,000	$104	80
221 Pearl St	0.61mi	3/1.0	944 (+1%)	6mo	$93,000	$99	65
1304 Captain Cv	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,010 (+8%)	9mo	$150,000	$149	64
99 Bellevue Cir	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+13%)	2mo	$139,000	$132	61
617 Lehman Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+14%)	3mo	$90,000	$84	60
1110 Wright St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,010 (+8%)	7mo	$130,000	$129	57
1235 Wright St	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,062 (+14%)	8mo	$131,000	$123	54
622 Stevenson St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+12%)	7mo	$68,000	$65	52
114 North Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	816 (-13%)	2mo	$99,500	$122	46
626 Paul Pl	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,076 (+15%)	4mo	$136,499	$127	46
802 Towering Oaks Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,076 (+15%)	2mo	$90,000	$84	45
1305 Ray Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,076 (+15%)	3mo	$139,900	$130	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-12,134
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,051
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72076

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $685/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $932

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $148	+0% $114	+5% $80	+10% $46
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $72	+0% $114	+5% $157	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $145	base $114	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
218 S J P Wright Loop Rd Unit 6 Jacksonville, AR	2.0	2.0	760	$850	$1.12	22d	1	0.13mi
1811 Neely St Unit 1811 Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.0	996	$825	$0.83	44d	1	0.21mi
89 Belair Loop Jacksonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,450	$1.33	22d	1	0.24mi
1409 Southern St Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	44d	1	0.36mi
708 Lehman Dr Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.5	1075	$1,150	$1.07	15d	1	0.39mi
311 Bellevue Cir Unit A Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	600	$950	$1.58	24d	1	0.43mi
241 Pearl St Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	700	$943	$1.35	24d	1	0.63mi
873 Jane Dr Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	971	$1,050	$1.08	44d	1	0.64mi
107 Pike Ave Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.0	1092	$995	$0.91	44d	1	0.73mi
428 N Oak St Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.5	996	$1,325	$1.33	44d	1	0.78mi
1301 Liberty Dr Jacksonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,295	$1.28	15d	1	0.85mi
633 Smart St Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.5	936	$995	$1.06	24d	1	0.86mi
131 Galloway Cir Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.0	912	$895	$0.98	44d	1	0.87mi
144 Pike Ave Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	1050	$800	$0.76	45d	1	0.88mi
172 Roosevelt Rd Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	1000	$800	$0.80	22d	1	0.91mi
308 N Oak St Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	788	$800	$1.02	15d	1	0.97mi
123 Union St Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	672	$950	$1.41	44d	1	0.98mi
114 Wilson St Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	696	$775	$1.11	44d	1	1.00mi
950 Military Rd Jacksonville, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,015	$1.17	15d	13	1.00mi
111 Wilson St Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	696	$895	$1.29	24d	1	1.01mi
124 Karen Cv Jacksonville, AR	4.0	1.5	1000	$1,050	$1.05	44d	1	1.27mi
1515 Pine Dr Apt C Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.0	775	$700	$0.90	44d	1	1.36mi
103 Overland Trl Jacksonville, AR	3.0	1.5	960	$1,195	$1.24	19d	1	1.39mi
622 S Oak St Unit 620 Jacksonville, AR	2.0	1.5	1015	$725	$0.71	24d	1	1.39mi
714 S Spring St Unit 718 Jacksonville, AR	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	24d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $120,000 New Listing 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Turn-key one-level home featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. Updates in 2026 include a new roof, interior and exterior paint, new carpet, updated fixtures, new windows and landscaping. Ideal for a primary residence or investment property. Conveniently located approximately 4 miles from Little Rock Air Force Base and close to shopping, dining, and major roadways. No seller disclosure on file. Agents see remarks.

18. 2025-12-31
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $685 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $768 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 12.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$685
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,034
• − Management: −$1,034
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$155
• After-tax cash flow: $1,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville North Pulaski School District
• NCES district ID: 0500419
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,869
• Composite: 17.16/100
• National rank: #9110
• State rank: #211 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #231
• US rank: #17378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, AR
• County: Pulaski County · 372,764 people
• City population: 38,437
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 38,437
• Household income: $54,379
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1733.0

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,378 people
• By 2030: 423,720 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 435,182 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 440,904 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 445,521 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 419,173 · +0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.1) · D 59.8% · R 37.7% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: 11.6pp · 2024: 22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.1 2020: D+22.5 2016: D+17.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.51%
• Current HPI: 201.6405
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.07%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+84.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $120,000 CARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $685 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.