1866 Ardsley Way · Sanibel, FL 33957

$599,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,371 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1982 0.57 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TRUE ISLAND LIVING AT LAST! Cedar home at the end of a cul-de-sac on a very large & private lot of 100' X 250'. Huge Southern exposure pool & oversized deck overlooking woods & tropical vegetation. Bright & colorful decor. Brand new eat -in kitchen with marble tile, custom wood cabinets & nearly all new appliances. Large pantry & separate updated laundry room with new appliances. Updated granite guest bath and 1/2 bath! Lots of Mexican tile with inserts & wood burning fireplace! Covered & screened porch off living & dining room offering wonderful cross breezes to the lanai. The pool cage screen is also new. Large upstairs master suite with big closet, separate a/c system & screened porch!

Key facts

• Private lot
• Formal dining room
• Thoughtful layout

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• DISTINCTIVE DESIGN
• THOUGHTFUL LAYOUT
• ABUNDANCE OF WINDOWS
• HIGH VAULTED CEILINGS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private pool (see remarks)
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; Association fee: $0

Exterior

• Parking: Underground parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Municipal irrigation
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level: 1; Faces north; South exposure (lot)
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Raised foundation; Known damage noted
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Range; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Living/dining room; Vaulted ceilings; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $599k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $515k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $599,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.87%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,448,681
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1890 Middle Gulf Dr	0.63mi	3/3.0	2,217 (-6%)	5mo	$1,355,000	$611	55
1714 Atlanta Plaza Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,048 (-14%)	7mo	$961,714	$470	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-9,495
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $104,976
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$431 /mo · $5,176/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,494
• Net cashflow: $1,372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,378

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1679 Serenity Ln Unit 1323695P Sanibel, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$7,115	$4.32	16d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on marketlisting id $599,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $650,000 Active 305 DOM
5. 2025-07-30
   listed $650,000 Active
6. 2025-07-19
   historical
7. 2025-04-08
   listed $650,000 Active
8. 2011-11-04
   soldstatus $515,000 758-char remark

   Show marketing remark (758 chars)

   TRUE ISLAND LIVING AT LAST! Cedar home at the end of a cul-de-sac on a very large & private lot of 100' X 250'. Huge Southern exposure pool & oversized deck overlooking woods & tropical vegetation. Bright & colorful decor. Brand new eat -in kitchen with marble tile, custom wood cabinets & nearly all new appliances. Large pantry & separate updated laundry room with new appliances. Updated granite guest bath and 1/2 bath! Lots of Mexican tile with inserts & wood burning fireplace! Covered & screened porch off living & dining room offering wonderful cross breezes to the lanai. The pool cage screen is also new. Large upstairs master suite with big closet, separate a/c system & screened porch!

9. 2011-11-04
   price $579,000 758-char remark

   Show marketing remark (758 chars)

   TRUE ISLAND LIVING AT LAST! Cedar home at the end of a cul-de-sac on a very large & private lot of 100' X 250'. Huge Southern exposure pool & oversized deck overlooking woods & tropical vegetation. Bright & colorful decor. Brand new eat -in kitchen with marble tile, custom wood cabinets & nearly all new appliances. Large pantry & separate updated laundry room with new appliances. Updated granite guest bath and 1/2 bath! Lots of Mexican tile with inserts & wood burning fireplace! Covered & screened porch off living & dining room offering wonderful cross breezes to the lanai. The pool cage screen is also new. Large upstairs master suite with big closet, separate a/c system & screened porch!

10. 2011-11-04
    soldstatus $515,000

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    TRUE ISLAND LIVING AT LAST! Cedar home at the end of a cul-de-sac on a very large & private lot of 100' X 250'. Huge Southern exposure pool & oversized deck overlooking woods & tropical vegetation. Bright & colorful decor. Brand new eat -in kitchen with marble tile, custom wood cabinets & nearly all new appliances. Large pantry & separate updated laundry room with new appliances. Updated granite guest bath and 1/2 bath! Lots of Mexican tile with inserts & wood burning fireplace! Covered & screened porch off living & dining room offering wonderful cross breezes to the lanai. The pool cage screen is also new. Large upstairs master suite with big closet, separate a/c system & screened porch!

11. 1985-08-01
    soldstatus $167,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,176 · $431/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,176 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $85,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$5,176
• − Insurance: −$8,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,830
• − Management: −$6,830
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable income: $7,451
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,788
• After-tax cash flow: $14,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+289.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-30 Listed $650,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-19 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $650,000 FORTMLS
• 2011-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-04 Price Changed $579,000 FORTMLS
• 2011-11-04 Sold (MLS) $515,000 FORTMLS
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,176 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.