1139 Carya Cir · Port Orange, FL 32129

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1978 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

No Lot Rent - No HOA Fees - You Own the Land! Welcome to this charming home located near Twin Gates & Silver Sands Middle school. Situated on a Corner lot, this property offers an extra-long driveway and host of upgrades including a Metal Roof, Water Heater 2018, PVC plumbing and AC 2017, ductwork. Inside, you'll find 3 bedrooms 2 bathrooms, a eat in kitchen with updated countertops, cabinets and a built-in microwave for added convenience. The home features a separate dining room & a generous living room for entertaining. Step outside to enjoy the front screened porch & patio. There's also an oversized shed & workshop with washer & dryer hookups conveniently lo

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Extra-long driveway
• No lot rent

Tags

• NO LOT RENT
• NO HOA FEES
• OWN THE LAND
• CORNER LOT
• EXTRA-LONG DRIVEWAY
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#131 in FL, #1,957 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D+, commute D+.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $180k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,800
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-28,894
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32129

• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,217/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $198	+0% $147	+5% $96	+10% $45
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $79	+0% $147	+5% $214	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $193	base $147	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1111 Squirrel Nest Ln Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1169	$1,900	$1.63	15d	1	0.26mi
1032 W Samms Ave Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,650	$1.40	15d	1	0.30mi
61 Brandy Hills Dr Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,895	$1.59	24d	1	0.31mi
21 Springwood Sq Unit 23 Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.5	1249	$1,500	$1.20	24d	1	0.32mi
86 Springwood Sq Unit 86 Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.5	1249	$1,450	$1.16	21d	1	0.37mi
3554 Irish Ln Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	24d	1	0.38mi
980 Canal View Blvd Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,448	$1.41	24d	2	0.39mi
104 Moonstone Ct Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	21d	1	0.39mi
3656 Jackson St Unit 1A Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.5	1164	$1,550	$1.33	24d	1	0.41mi
190 Moonstone Ct Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	21d	1	0.44mi
1206 Deer Springs Rd Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,625	$1.53	15d	1	0.48mi
1010 N Swallow Tail Dr Port Orange, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,574	$1.76	11d	16	0.89mi
488 Autumn Trl Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,499	$1.08	24d	1	0.95mi
958 Village Trl Port Orange, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,455	$1.88	11d	12	0.97mi
1154 Ashland Ct Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,795	$1.61	15d	1	1.03mi
4211 New Haven Ct Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.04mi
3835 Clyde Morris Blvd Port Orange, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,012	$1.99	11d	17	1.10mi
374 Windsor Dr Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,636	$1.17	15d	1	1.11mi
940 Village Trl Unit 4-306 Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$2,000	$1.99	15d	1	1.13mi
5609 Victoria Gardens Blvd Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.0–1.5	1050	$1,600	$1.52	24d	7	1.18mi
340 Windsor Dr Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1227	$1,650	$1.34	24d	1	1.20mi
12 Downing Dr Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,599	$1.74	15d	1	1.20mi
1270 Reed Canal Rd Port Orange, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,746	$1.74	11d	29	1.25mi
4514 Alder Dr Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,100	$1.54	11d	1	1.30mi
1401 Reed Canal Rd Port Orange, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$1,856	$1.78	15d	25	1.35mi
3780 Clyde Morris Blvd Port Orange, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,369	$1.30	11d	12	1.40mi
1200 Floral Springs Blvd Port Orange, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$1,780	$1.70	11d	81	1.46mi
3960 Oak Trail Run #2101 Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.5	1263	$1,900	$1.50	24d	1	1.47mi
3307 Oak Trail Run #7 Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	910	$1,650	$1.81	24d	1	1.47mi
3960 Oak Trail Run Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.5	1258	$1,898	$1.51	19d	2	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   price $179,900
3. 2025-12-08
   listed $184,500 Active
4. 2025-10-30
   historical
5. 2025-05-21
   listed $185,000 Active
6. 2019-08-07
   soldstatus $75,000
7. 2014-10-20
   soldstatus $60,000
8. 2004-12-06
   soldstatus $92,500
9. 1978-09-01
   soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,217 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,217 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,217
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$1,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$288
• After-tax cash flow: $2,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port Orange

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #1957

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Orange, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 75,051
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,195
• Household income: $67,924
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.13%
• Current HPI: 310.0285
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.71%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+822.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — Daytona MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $179,900 Daytona MLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $184,500 Daytona MLS
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — Daytona MLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $185,000 Daytona MLS
• 2019-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 1978-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+29.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,217 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.