23 Falls Rd #1 · Thornton, NH 03285

$260,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 823 sqft · Condo public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2010 $461/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience easy, single-level living at The Falls at Millbrook. Beautifully updated 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo nestled in the heart of the White Mountains. Enjoy peace and privacy with this end unit, where you can hear the tranquil sounds of Millbrook right from your Condo. This bright and airy unit features modern finishes throughout, including fresh interior paint, modern light fixtures, and new appliances. Stay comfortable year-round with a brand new mini split heating and cooling system. The open-concept living area offers a clean, modern feel with an abundance of natural light. The kitchen is well-appointed, featuring granite countertops and high-quality cabinetry. A rare bonus for Condo living; the unit comes with a massive private storage area in the basement with interior access, along with its own washer and dryer. Step out onto your back patio and unwind to the sounds of Millbrook, taking in the natural wooded buffer. Located in an unbeatable area minutes from top ski resorts, hiking, and outdoor adventure, this newer built Condo offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with mountain charm. An on-site pool adds to the appeal for summer enjoyment. Short term rentals are not allowed, only rentals that are 6 months or longer are permitted. Agent is related to the seller.

Key facts

• End unit
• On site pool
• Single level living

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• END UNIT
• PRIVATE STORAGE AREA
• BACK PATIO
• ON SITE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Public road frontage
• HOA & community: Condo association (The Falls at Millbrook); Quarterly condo fees; HOA fee covers landscaping, plowing, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Community water; Private sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; High-speed internet at site; Cable available at site
• Home design: Townhouse; Existing construction; Unit #1; Shingle roof; Built in 2010
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Surveyed
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Country setting with waterfront and river frontage; Waterfall nearby; Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 8'7" x 8'4"); Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on main level (approx. 11'6" x 13'1")
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on main level (approx. 4'11" x 9'4")
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split cooling and heating; Propane heating; Radiant floor heat; Gas stove
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Foyer; Dining room; Living room; Utility room (basement); Other finished/unfinished basement space
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Basement utility room (approx. 14'10" x 19')

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pemi-Baker Regional School District (rural): math 45% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #77 of 171 in NH (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $228,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $134,575
• Equity at exit: $234,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $402,566
• Equity at exit: $505,123

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03285

• Home prices YoY: 29.5%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,596 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,795/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$461
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,741

Max offer price $239,770

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $461 · $5,532/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $260,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $260,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $260,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $260,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    listed $275,000 Active
17. 2026-03-12
    price $275,000 1293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1293 chars)

    Experience easy, single-level living at The Falls at Millbrook. Beautifully updated 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo nestled in the heart of the White Mountains. Enjoy peace and privacy with this end unit, where you can hear the tranquil sounds of Millbrook right from your Condo. This bright and airy unit features modern finishes throughout, including fresh interior paint, modern light fixtures, and new appliances. Stay comfortable year-round with a brand new mini split heating and cooling system. The open-concept living area offers a clean, modern feel with an abundance of natural light. The kitchen is well-appointed, featuring granite countertops and high-quality cabinetry. A rare bonus for Condo living; the unit comes with a massive private storage area in the basement with interior access, along with its own washer and dryer. Step out onto your back patio and unwind to the sounds of Millbrook, taking in the natural wooded buffer. Located in an unbeatable area minutes from top ski resorts, hiking, and outdoor adventure, this newer built Condo offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with mountain charm. An on-site pool adds to the appeal for summer enjoyment. Short term rentals are not allowed, only rentals that are 6 months or longer are permitted. Agent is related to the seller.

18. 2026-02-05
    listed $289,900 Active 1293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1293 chars)

    Experience easy, single-level living at The Falls at Millbrook. Beautifully updated 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo nestled in the heart of the White Mountains. Enjoy peace and privacy with this end unit, where you can hear the tranquil sounds of Millbrook right from your Condo. This bright and airy unit features modern finishes throughout, including fresh interior paint, modern light fixtures, and new appliances. Stay comfortable year-round with a brand new mini split heating and cooling system. The open-concept living area offers a clean, modern feel with an abundance of natural light. The kitchen is well-appointed, featuring granite countertops and high-quality cabinetry. A rare bonus for Condo living; the unit comes with a massive private storage area in the basement with interior access, along with its own washer and dryer. Step out onto your back patio and unwind to the sounds of Millbrook, taking in the natural wooded buffer. Located in an unbeatable area minutes from top ski resorts, hiking, and outdoor adventure, this newer built Condo offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with mountain charm. An on-site pool adds to the appeal for summer enjoyment. Short term rentals are not allowed, only rentals that are 6 months or longer are permitted. Agent is related to the seller.

19. 2025-06-25
    price $270,000
20. 2024-02-05
    soldstatus $235,000
21. 2024-02-02
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed
22. 2023-12-13
    status Pending
23. 2023-12-05
    listed $234,500 Active
24. 2020-06-22
    soldstatus $155,133
25. 2020-06-19
    soldstatus $155,100 Closed
26. 2020-05-08
    historical Active with Contract
27. 2020-04-15
    listed $149,900 Active
28. 2019-12-26
    soldstatus $146,000
29. 2019-12-24
    soldstatus $146,000 Closed
30. 2019-12-12
    status Pending
31. 2019-11-24
    historical Active with Contract
32. 2019-11-03
    historical
33. 2019-09-16
    status Active
34. 2019-09-04
    historical Active with Contract
35. 2019-06-11
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,795 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,232 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,436/yr (+$120/mo · 51.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,795
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,493
• − Management: −$2,493
• − HOA: −$5,532
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$5,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,340
• After-tax cash flow: $-34/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pemi-Baker Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3399965
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,275
• Composite: 49.93/100
• National rank: #4161
• State rank: #77 of 171 in NH

Livability — Thornton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,763

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 14% Lithuanian 12% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.72%
• Current HPI: 468.1616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+83.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $275,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $275,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $289,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $270,000 PrimeMLS
• 2024-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-02 Sold (MLS) $235,000 PrimeMLS
• 2023-12-13 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2023-12-05 Listed $234,500 PrimeMLS
• 2020-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $155,133 Public Records
• 2020-06-19 Sold (MLS) $155,100 PrimeMLS
• 2020-05-08 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2020-04-15 Listed $149,900 PrimeMLS
• 2019-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-24 Sold (MLS) $146,000 PrimeMLS
• 2019-12-12 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2019-11-24 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2019-11-03 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2019-09-16 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2019-09-04 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2019-06-11 Listed $149,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,795 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.