21612 Casavatore Dr · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · Land · 44 Days on market

Built 2025 7,313 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Former Lennar model home located on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Tavola West community in New Caney! This Chestnut II floor plan offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,461 sq ft with an open-concept layout connecting the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The bright kitchen features white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a spacious breakfast bar overlooking the living area. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath and generous closet space, while two secondary bedrooms offer flexibility for guests or a home office. Enjoy attractive curb appeal, a covered front entry, and convenient access to shopping, dining, and

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Breakfast bar
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• TAVOLA WEST COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Woodbranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney El (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 89% FRL); Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $199,699 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,906
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-43,772
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,115/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $173	+0% $108	+5% $43	+10% $-22
Rent	-10% $-50	-5% $29	+0% $108	+5% $187	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $166	base $108	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18243 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1477	$1,725	$1.17	5d	1	0.53mi
18242 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,750	$1.57	7d	1	0.55mi
18036 Trepito Ave New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,950	$1.11	0d	1	0.87mi
19308 Via Vinovo Ct New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,100	$1.39	45d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-16
   listed $230,000 Active
6. 2024-09-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,094/yr (+$258/mo · 277.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,115
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$2,610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$626
• After-tax cash flow: $1,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,115 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.