4306 Amblewood Ln · Sand Ridge, NY 13041

$192,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1975 7,150 sqft lot Est $225k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this three-bedroom split-level home offering a fantastic opportunity to make it your own. Featuring a spacious layout with multiple living areas, this property provides a solid foundation for customization and modern updates. The main level includes a bright living room, dining area, and kitchen with great potential for redesign. Upstairs, you’ll find three comfortably sized bedrooms and a full bath, while the lower level offers additional living space ideal for a family room, home office, or recreation area. Set on a generous lot, the home also includes a partially fenced yard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. While the property does require updating, it presents an excellent

Key facts

• Dining area
• Bright living room
• Split-level home

Tags

• SPLIT-LEVEL HOME
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH POTENTIAL
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $192k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.4% in Sand Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#926 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Liverpool Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #381 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $192,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,640
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4306 Amblewood Ln	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	0mo	$225,000	$216	100
8486 Partridge	0.11mi	3/1.0	924 (-11%)	9mo	$222,789	$241	69
4444 State Route 31	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+10%)	3mo	$180,000	$157	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,353
• Equity at exit: $28,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $11,711
• Equity at exit: $16,601

Cash invested: $53,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13041

• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax from tax record: −$459 /mo · $5,510/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,957

Max offer price $192,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $331	+0% $276	+5% $222	+10% $167
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $185	+0% $276	+5% $367	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $325	base $276	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,000
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8545 Morgan Rd Clay, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$2,175	$3.00	14d	6	0.30mi
4597 New York 31 Clay, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	967	$2,700	$2.79	14d	7	1.21mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $192,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,510 · $459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,510 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,755
• − Property taxes: −$5,510
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
• − Management: −$2,214
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable income: $440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$106
• After-tax cash flow: $3,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liverpool Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617520
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,134
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3134
• State rank: #381 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sand Ridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #926
• US rank: #18073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,094

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.12%
• Current HPI: 326.7838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $192,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,510 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.