BLAKE Plan · Crandall, TX 75114

$183,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily · 304 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Let us show you our Blake floorplan! This beautiful Cottage Style home plan offers a perfect mix of style, comfort, and practicality! The exterior of this home is characterized by a custom-designed elevation with exquisite siding details, creating a welcoming first impression. A charming covered front porch leads to a high-quality raised-panel fiberglass insulated front door, with options for upgrading to a decorative door for a personalized touch. As you step inside, the spacious foyer leads to the open concept living area, where functionality meets style. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring 36" cabinets with hidden hinges for a clean, modern look. Equipped with stainless-steel appliances and durable wood plank laminate flooring, this kitchen is designed for ease of use. With a built-in sink, dishwasher, and walk-in pantry, you'll have everything you need for meal prep and storage. The large primary bedroom is designed for relaxation, offering an adjacent bathroom that ensures your mornings are stress-free. The bathroom features a stylish vanity with a sink and a non-framed mirror, while the walk-in closet provides ample space for organization. This well-designed bathroom is the perfect sanctuary to unwind after a busy day. The home is equipped with durable laminate wood plank flooring on the first floor, and if applicable, plush ½" carpet is used on the second floor.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 36 inch cabinets
• Listed 304 days

Tags

• COTTAGE STYLE HOME PLAN
• CUSTOM-DESIGNED ELEVATION
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• 36 INCH CABINETS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $183,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $260,953.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $184k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-542 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 5.2% in Crandall — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nola Kathryn Wilson El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 596 students, 59% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 956 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,692 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.90%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,953
• List price: $183,990
• Delta: -29.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2502 Rockridge Dr	0.94mi	2/1.0	768 (-6%)	23mo	$151,000	$197	36
3121 Helix Bay Dr	1.30mi	2/1.0	880 (+8%)	29mo	$249,000	$283	32
2102 Killdeer Crs	0.93mi	2/2.0	882 (+8%)	33mo	$362,000	$410	28
505 S Main St	1.46mi	2/1.0	926 (+14%)	20mo	$195,000	$211	26
307 N 4th St	1.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	940 (+15%)	14mo	$100,000	$106	24
3713 Haydon Hill Rd	1.44mi	2/1.0	1,004 (+23%)	33mo	$219,999	$219	20
401 Briar Creek Dr	1.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (+25%)	27mo	$220,000	$216	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-76,770
• Equity at exit: $38,909

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-111,188
• Equity at exit: $22,562

Cash invested: $73,067 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $186,740 ($207/sqft)
• Median days on market: 304 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +54.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 956
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,597 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,368
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$326 /mo · $3,914/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,283

Max offer price $182,551

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-361	-5% $-452	+0% $-542	+5% $-632	+10% $-722
Rent	-10% $-668	-5% $-605	+0% $-542	+5% $-479	+10% $-416
Rate	-1.0pp $-410	-0.5pp $-475	base $-542	+0.5pp $-609	+1.0pp $-678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,238
• Closing costs: $7,829
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 E Gleason St Crandall, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,465	$1.47	10d	1	1.30mi
204 Fox Run Crandall, TX	3.0	1.5	1034	$1,450	$1.40	54d	1	1.37mi
106 W Church St Crandall, TX	2.0	1.0	984	$1,400	$1.42	28d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $183,990 Active 304 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $183,990 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $183,990 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $183,990 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $183,990 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $183,990 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $183,990 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $183,990 Active 295 DOM
9. 2025-09-02
   price $183,990 1517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1517 chars)

   Let us show you our Blake floorplan! This beautiful Cottage Style home plan offers a perfect mix of style, comfort, and practicality! The exterior of this home is characterized by a custom-designed elevation with exquisite siding details, creating a welcoming first impression. A charming covered front porch leads to a high-quality raised-panel fiberglass insulated front door, with options for upgrading to a decorative door for a personalized touch. As you step inside, the spacious foyer leads to the open concept living area, where functionality meets style. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring 36" cabinets with hidden hinges for a clean, modern look. Equipped with stainless-steel appliances and durable wood plank laminate flooring, this kitchen is designed for ease of use. With a built-in sink, dishwasher, and walk-in pantry, you'll have everything you need for meal prep and storage. The large primary bedroom is designed for relaxation, offering an adjacent bathroom that ensures your mornings are stress-free. The bathroom features a stylish vanity with a sink and a non-framed mirror, while the walk-in closet provides ample space for organization. This well-designed bathroom is the perfect sanctuary to unwind after a busy day. The home is equipped with durable laminate wood plank flooring on the first floor, and if applicable, plush ½" carpet is used on the second floor. Additional smart home features and an innovative tech package are included to enhance convenienc

10. 2025-08-09
    listed $181,990 Active 1517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1517 chars)

    Let us show you our Blake floorplan! This beautiful Cottage Style home plan offers a perfect mix of style, comfort, and practicality! The exterior of this home is characterized by a custom-designed elevation with exquisite siding details, creating a welcoming first impression. A charming covered front porch leads to a high-quality raised-panel fiberglass insulated front door, with options for upgrading to a decorative door for a personalized touch. As you step inside, the spacious foyer leads to the open concept living area, where functionality meets style. The kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring 36" cabinets with hidden hinges for a clean, modern look. Equipped with stainless-steel appliances and durable wood plank laminate flooring, this kitchen is designed for ease of use. With a built-in sink, dishwasher, and walk-in pantry, you'll have everything you need for meal prep and storage. The large primary bedroom is designed for relaxation, offering an adjacent bathroom that ensures your mornings are stress-free. The bathroom features a stylish vanity with a sink and a non-framed mirror, while the walk-in closet provides ample space for organization. This well-designed bathroom is the perfect sanctuary to unwind after a busy day. The home is equipped with durable laminate wood plank flooring on the first floor, and if applicable, plush ½" carpet is used on the second floor. Additional smart home features and an innovative tech package are included to enhance convenienc

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,617
• − Property taxes: −$3,914
• − Insurance: −$1,305
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − Depreciation: −$7,591
• Taxable loss: −$11,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,719
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Blake floorplan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a beautiful exterior and interior design, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a small front porch or bench — A small front porch or bench can enhance curb appeal and provide a welcoming entrance. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nola Kathryn Wilson El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $183,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-09 Listed $181,990 Zillow