233 Caspia Ln · Nocatee, FL 32081

$388,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2016 5,227 sqft lot $301/sqft · 12% below area Est $443k · 12% under $245/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pre-construction. Ready in August! The Noir Coast includes a welcoming and spacious kitchen upon entry with an open design including a café and gathering area. This two bedroom home includes a covered lanai and two-car garage. This home sits on an extra deep home site and includes many upgrades like 9 ft. ceilings, granite counter tops, hardwood flooring and much more.Pictures are for illustration purposes only.Elevation, color and options may vary.Full CDD bond payoff if home closes by August 31 2016.

Key facts

• Plantation shutters
• Solar tubes
• Custom closets

Tags

• CROWN MOLDING
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• CUSTOM CLOSETS
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• GLASS ENTRY FRONT DOOR
• SOLAR TUBES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (monthly fee); Association fee: $245 per month; One-time association fee: $3,000; CDD fee applicable; CDD fee amount: $599.06; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, gated access, park, pickleball, sauna, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, and security; Sidewalks in community; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: 24-hour security; Gated with guard; Community security amenities
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; 24-hour security; Gated community with guard; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (primary on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Primary bedroom on main level; Solar tubes; Split bedroom floorplan; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $388k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-789 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (35.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Palms Elementary School (math 84% / reading 85%, grade A+, #43 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 921 students, 10% FRL); Alice B. Landrum Middle School (math 87% / reading 79%, grade A+, #14 of 571 statewide, top 2%, 1,142 students, 3% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $786 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $264k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,564 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.72%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $443,158
• List price: $388,000
• Delta: -12.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Goldenrod Park Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+8%)	3mo	$385,000	$276	76
118 Caspia Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	4mo	$423,000	$297	74
20 Caspia Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+8%)	1mo	$365,000	$262	73
341 Caspia Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+10%)	2mo	$425,000	$298	72
86 Hawks Harbor Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+8%)	4mo	$408,000	$292	69
48 Fairhaven Glen Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+8%)	2mo	$390,000	$280	69
132 Cypress Bay Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+8%)	2mo	$385,000	$276	66
248 Hawks Harbor Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+11%)	1mo	$429,000	$299	62
39 Cypress Bay Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+11%)	4mo	$400,000	$278	59
28 Windy Whisper Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+8%)	5mo	$393,000	$282	58
138 Canopy Oak Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,425 (+10%)	2mo	$475,000	$333	56
60 Windy Whisper Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+11%)	5mo	$402,000	$280	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-74,979
• Equity at exit: $103,269

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-106,760
• Equity at exit: $116,865

Cash invested: $108,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,035
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,856/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$245
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,497

Max offer price $248,564

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-570	-5% $-679	+0% $-789	+5% $-899	+10% $-1,009
Rent	-10% $-987	-5% $-888	+0% $-789	+5% $-691	+10% $-592
Rate	-1.0pp $-594	-0.5pp $-691	base $-789	+0.5pp $-890	+1.0pp $-992

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,000
• Closing costs: $11,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
610 Orchard Pass Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,750	$1.89	25d	1	0.42mi
443 Orchard Pass Ave Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,800	$1.82	25d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $245 · $2,940/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $388,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $388,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $388,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $388,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $388,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $388,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $388,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $388,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $388,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $388,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $395,000 Active 2428-char remark
16. 2016-09-09
    soldstatus $264,230 Sold 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Pre-construction. Ready in August! The Noir Coast includes a welcoming and spacious kitchen upon entry with an open design including a café and gathering area. This two bedroom home includes a covered lanai and two-car garage. This home sits on an extra deep home site and includes many upgrades like 9 ft. ceilings, granite counter tops, hardwood flooring and much more.Pictures are for illustration purposes only.Elevation, color and options may vary.Full CDD bond payoff if home closes by August 31 2016.

17. 2016-08-17
    status Pending 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Pre-construction. Ready in August! The Noir Coast includes a welcoming and spacious kitchen upon entry with an open design including a café and gathering area. This two bedroom home includes a covered lanai and two-car garage. This home sits on an extra deep home site and includes many upgrades like 9 ft. ceilings, granite counter tops, hardwood flooring and much more.Pictures are for illustration purposes only.Elevation, color and options may vary.Full CDD bond payoff if home closes by August 31 2016.

18. 2016-06-09
    listed $264,530 Active 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Pre-construction. Ready in August! The Noir Coast includes a welcoming and spacious kitchen upon entry with an open design including a café and gathering area. This two bedroom home includes a covered lanai and two-car garage. This home sits on an extra deep home site and includes many upgrades like 9 ft. ceilings, granite counter tops, hardwood flooring and much more.Pictures are for illustration purposes only.Elevation, color and options may vary.Full CDD bond payoff if home closes by August 31 2016.

19. 2016-06-08
    price $263,730 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Pre-construction. Ready in August! The Noir Coast includes a welcoming and spacious kitchen upon entry with an open design including a café and gathering area. This two bedroom home includes a covered lanai and two-car garage. This home sits on an extra deep home site and includes many upgrades like 9 ft. ceilings, granite counter tops, hardwood flooring and much more.Pictures are for illustration purposes only.Elevation, color and options may vary.Full CDD bond payoff if home closes by August 31 2016.

20. 2016-06-08
    price $266,230 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Pre-construction. Ready in August! The Noir Coast includes a welcoming and spacious kitchen upon entry with an open design including a café and gathering area. This two bedroom home includes a covered lanai and two-car garage. This home sits on an extra deep home site and includes many upgrades like 9 ft. ceilings, granite counter tops, hardwood flooring and much more.Pictures are for illustration purposes only.Elevation, color and options may vary.Full CDD bond payoff if home closes by August 31 2016.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,856 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,856 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,734
• − Property taxes: −$3,856
• − Insurance: −$1,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,398
• − Management: −$2,398
• − HOA: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$11,287
• Taxable loss: −$16,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+47.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $388,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $395,000 realMLS
• 2016-09-09 Sold (MLS) $264,230 realMLS
• 2016-08-17 Pending — realMLS
• 2016-06-09 Listed $264,530 realMLS
• 2016-06-08 Price Changed $266,230 realMLS
• 2016-06-08 Price Changed $263,730 realMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,856 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.