Fishtail Plan · Dundee, FL 33838

$291,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,525 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Fishtail floorplan, a spacious and versatile offering from our Value Collection. This roomy plan spans 1,525 square feet, providing ample space for comfortable living. Upon entering, you'll find two bedrooms and a bathroom located in the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Nestled in the back of the home is the Owners Suite, featuring an attached bathroom and a walk-in closet with abundant storage space. The dining room space is perfectly situated near the open-air kitchen, creating an ideal setting for both meals and entertaining. With continued counterspace and ample cabinets, this kitchen is a dream for culinary enthusiasts. The great room seamlessly flow

Key facts

• Owners suite
• Open-air kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FISHTAIL FLOORPLAN
• OWNERS SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-AIR KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 208 Spindlewood Blvd, Dundee, FL 33838; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-22
• Financial info: List price $299,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Fishtail)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1525 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan is labeled 'Fishtail' (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,728 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $138,076
• Equity at exit: $263,048

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $423,176
• Equity at exit: $567,272

Cash invested: $81,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,380/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $244,322

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,998
• Closing costs: $8,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,049	$1.21	3d	1	1.08mi
1709 Hill Top Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,160	$1.04	3d	1	1.35mi
1804 Vista View Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,250	$1.09	23d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,990 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,990 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,990 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,990 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $291,990 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $291,990 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $291,990 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $291,990 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $291,990 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $287,990 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $287,990 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,990 Active 116 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,356
• − Property taxes: −$4,380
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$8,494
• Taxable loss: −$9,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B