None · Covelo, CA 95428

$69,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

8.98 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Have you ever dreamed of living in nature with beautiful surroundings and views? Then this is the perfect 8.98 acres for you; zoned UR20. The amazing views of the valley and surrounding mountains are breathtaking from this piece of paradise! The home is currently in the final building stage and perfect for you to put your own touches on. Metal roof is installed. The property features 2 garden sites and a small pond. This is a perfect place for privacy and seclusion; come see for yourself!

Key facts

• Zoned ur20
• Privacy
• Metal roof

Tags

• 8.98 ACRES
• ZONED UR20
• METAL ROOF
• 2 GARDEN SITES
• SMALL POND
• PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Large lot (approximately 8.98 acres)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Off-grid utilities; Private sewer
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property
• Construction: No ADU/second unit listed
• Exterior features: Garden; Private setting; Secluded lot; Does not allow horses; No private pool or spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: One-story home; Main level includes bedroom(s), full bath(s), kitchen and living room; No basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($896 rent vs $69k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#806 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Round Valley Unified (rural): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #1,281 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $504 of equity ($477 loan paydown + $27 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.34%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $12,828
• Equity at exit: $20,170

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $39,357
• Equity at exit: $24,354

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95428

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 493-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $69,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 43 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$860
• − Management: −$860
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $1,778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$427
• After-tax cash flow: $2,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Round Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633720
• Math proficiency: 11% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,309
• Composite: 18.26/100
• National rank: #14063
• State rank: #1281 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Covelo

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #806
• US rank: #22831

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,667

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Hispanic / Latino 30% Native American 29% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 151.0199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-65.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $69,000 BAREIS
• 2023-04-11 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2022-10-10 Listed $199,000 BAREIS