308 Pine Grove Rd · Willow Springs, MO 65793

$45,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1925 Fair condition 0.86 ac lot $38/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location with a large lot and plenty of potential. This investor special would make an excellent rental property, flip opportunity, or affordable home project. Home also includes basement/storm shelter. Conveniently located with room to add value and make it your own.

Key facts

• Large lot
• 0.86 acre lot
• Built 1925

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• BASEMENT STORM SHELTER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; Other water source
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Above-grade finished area reported; Total reported living area available
• Exterior features: Property has a view; Lot about 0.86 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Wood heating via fireplace; No central cooling
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $46k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 3.7% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#386 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Willow Springs R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 324 in MO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Springs Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 525 students, 72% FRL); Willow Springs Middle (math 34% / reading 51%, grade D-, #140 of 391 statewide, top 38%, 369 students, 66% FRL); Willow Springs High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 387 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $317 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,523 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.42%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,576
• List price: $45,900
• Delta: -55.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 North Center St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+5%)	9mo	$69,900	$55	54
405 S Hill St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,119 (-6%)	0mo	$65,000	$58	52
701 N Center St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,239 (+4%)	14mo	$179,900	$145	44
505 West 4th St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,026 (-14%)	16mo	$34,900	$34	41
603 N Harris St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,361 (+14%)	22mo	$139,500	$102	22
708 Corn Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,045 (-13%)	22mo	$29,000	$28	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $26,286
• Equity at exit: $6,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $66,359
• Equity at exit: $3,969

Cash invested: $12,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65793

• Home prices YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $402

Max offer price $45,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,475
• Closing costs: $1,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $45,900 Active 274-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,571
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,029
• − Management: −$1,029
• − Depreciation: −$1,335
• Taxable income: $5,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,434
• After-tax cash flow: $4,917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding repair, landscaping, and kitchen cleaning. Improvements in these areas can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — The siding is weathered and in need of repair.
• Moderate landscaping — The overgrown grass and weeds need trimming and maintenance.
• Minor kitchen cleaning — The kitchen is cluttered and needs cleaning to improve appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and exterior painting — Improving the landscaping and painting the exterior can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale kitchen cleaning and organization — A clean and organized kitchen can attract more buyers and increase the home's appeal for resale.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · The siding is weathered and in need of repair.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
landscaping · The overgrown grass and weeds need trimming and maintenance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen cleaning · The kitchen is cluttered and needs cleaning to improve appearance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and exterior painting — Improving the landscaping and painting the exterior can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale kitchen cleaning and organization — A clean and organized kitchen can attract more buyers and increase the home's appeal for resale. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willow Springs R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2932070
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,334
• Composite: 34.4/100
• National rank: #5207
• State rank: #140 of 324 in MO

Livability — Willow Springs

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #386
• US rank: #16837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Springs, MO
• City population: 5,679
• Population (ZIP): 5,679

Population outlook (Howell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,462 people
• By 2030: 37,240 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 34,495 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 31,450 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 23,660 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 16,373 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Howell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.8pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+30.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.63%
• Current HPI: 220.7596
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $45,900 SOMO