133 Nemo Ln · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$249,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,544 sqft · Land · 140 Days on market

Built 2026 2,200 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Brand-new 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath two-story townhome with garage in Winter Haven, FL. The open-concept main level features a spacious living area, flex space, powder room, and private covered lanai. The professionally designed kitchen includes a breakfast bar, 36-inch soft-close birch cabinets, premium laminate countertops, walk-in pantry, and Samsung stainless steel appliances. Upstairs, the owner’s suite offers a walk-in closet and en-suite bath with dual vanities and a tiled shower, while two additional bedrooms share a dual-vanity hall bath. Features include luxury vinyl plank flooring in main areas and baths, stain-resistant carpet in bedrooms, LED lighting, built

Key facts

• Owner’s suite
• Walk-in closet
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• PRIVATE COVERED LANAI
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• OWNER’S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.05 acres (about 204 m²); Direction to property: Drive SW on Lucerne Rd., turn left on Turtle Bay Ave.
• HOA & community: HOA managed by HCMANAGEMENT; HOA required — $100 monthly ($1,200 annually); Community playground; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion May 31, 2026); South facing
• Construction: New construction; Concrete and vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by HIGHLAND HOMES (model: ARUBA)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,539 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-51,237
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-63,444
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,135 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $229,635

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-54	+0% $-140	+5% $-226	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-224	+0% $-140	+5% $-56	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-76	base $-140	+0.5pp $-205	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
241 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,000	$1.16	15d	1	0.61mi
265 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,200	$1.54	4d	1	0.63mi
877 Cambridge Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,875	$1.02	24d	1	0.76mi
213 Lake Lucerne Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$1,900	$1.11	12d	1	0.78mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	24d	1	0.97mi
279 Sunfish Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,200	$1.13	24d	1	1.04mi
1127 Seedorf Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,400	$1.20	4d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $249,900
15. 2026-03-18
    price $255,900
16. 2026-01-29
    listed $267,900 Active
17. 2025-11-19
    soldstatus $360,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,050
• − Management: −$2,050
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,426
• After-tax cash flow: $-255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-30.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $255,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $267,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records