4023 Riversites Dr · Sterling, MI 48749

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1999 1.15 ac lot Est $127k · 7% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this well-maintained home offers 1.15 acres of wooded privacy with just the right amount of open space for a garden and a spacious backyard. Expansive decking wraps around approximately three-quarters of the home, creating the perfect setting to relax, entertain, and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. This “heavy build” manufactured home was constructed with additional raw materials and structural reinforcement beyond industry minimums, including hurricane straps for added durability. The nicely landscaped yard features a fire pit with split wood ready for campfires, a small barn with a loft, and a garden shed with an enclosed lean-to for added storage and flexibility. Inside, a newer woodstove adds warmth and charm to the living space. Major updates include a new roof and skylights installed in 2022, making this move-in-ready property an excellent opportunity for its next owner. Rife River access at Pinnacle park.

Key facts

• Wooded privacy
• Spacious backyard
• Hurricane straps

Tags

• WOODED PRIVACY
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• EXPANSIVE DECKING
• HURRICANE STRAPS
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1.15 acres; Irregular lot dimensions; Subdivision: RIFLE RIVER VALLEY ESTATES

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel road access
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residential property; Residential zoning; One story (above-grade finished area listed)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Built area above grade: 1,140 (square feet)
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Barn(s); Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; Wood heating (wood stove); Ceiling fans; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Walk-in closets; Skylights; Window treatments; Wood burning stove / wood stove
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($94/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#609 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Standish-Sterling Community Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #168 of 540 in MI (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Arenac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Arenac County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $135k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,420 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,540
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4116 River Sites Dr	0.22mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,176 (+3%)	17mo	$125,000	$106	63
481 Grove Rd	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,200 (+5%)	22mo	$133,000	$111	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $59,958
• Equity at exit: $106,670

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $173,817
• Equity at exit: $215,781

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48749

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,393/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $46	+0% $8	+5% $-30	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-81	-5% $-37	+0% $8	+5% $52	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $42	base $8	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 675-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,393 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$343/yr (+$29/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,393
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$534
• After-tax cash flow: $628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Standish-Sterling Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632940
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,526
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4573
• State rank: #168 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sterling

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #609
• US rank: #20396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,214

Population outlook (Arenac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,036 people
• By 2030: 13,189 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 11,309 · -19.4%
• By 2050: 9,616 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 6,776 · -51.7%
• By 2100: 4,997 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Arenac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.44%
• Current HPI: 182.1014
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-20 Sold (MLS) $76,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-08-30 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-09 Sold (MLS) $57,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-05-15 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,393 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.