22163 County Road 288 · Hermitage, MO 65724

$62,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 191 Days on market

Built 1989 8,712 sqft lot Est $112k · 44% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Here's your chance to slow down and actually live the lake life -- without the lakefront price tag. This freshly updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a manageable . 2-acre lot right off the main road leading straight to the boat ramp. Imagine tossing your fishing poles in the truck and being on the water within minutes -- that's the kind of easy living this place offers. Step inside and you'll love the fresh updates -- crisp wainscoting, warm under-cabinet lighting, and a brand-new refrigerator ready for your weekend catch. The remodel was done with care, giving the space a bright, comfortable feel that makes you want to kick off your shoes and stay awhile. This home is perfect whether yo

Key facts

• Low-maintenance
• Move-in condition
• Fresh updates

Tags

• BOAT RAMP
• FRESH UPDATES
• UNDER-CABINET LIGHTING
• BRAND-NEW REFRIGERATOR
• LOW-MAINTENANCE
• MOVE-IN CONDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($843 rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.3% in Hermitage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#788 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermitage R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #185 of 535 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hermitage Elem. (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 1,115 statewide, top 35%, 138 students, 58% FRL); Hermitage Middle (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 50 students, 44% FRL); Hermitage High (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #377 of 521 statewide, top 73%, 81 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($432 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $55,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.07%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,112
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22163 County Road 288	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	1mo	$62,500	$80	99
21960 County Road 288	0.24mi	2/1.0	689 (-12%)	0mo	$120,000	$174	68
22441 Maple St	0.48mi	2/1.0	840 (+7%)	5mo	$119,900	$143	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $48,974
• Equity at exit: $56,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $132,510
• Equity at exit: $121,424

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65724

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $547

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-06
   status Active
3. 2025-10-08
   listed $62,500 Active
4. 2025-07-25
   listed $72,500 Active
5. 2025-07-03
   price $75,000
6. 2025-05-22
   price $84,900
7. 2025-04-10
   listed $89,900 Active
8. 2024-10-31
   soldstatus
9. 2024-10-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$810
• − Management: −$810
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $1,931
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$464
• After-tax cash flow: $2,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermitage R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2914310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,066
• Composite: 40.92/100
• National rank: #7513
• State rank: #185 of 535 in MO

Livability — Hermitage

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #23974

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,728

Population outlook (Hickory County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,206 people
• By 2030: 7,690 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 6,780 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,076 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 5,088 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 4,489 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Italian 17% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickory

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 216.4684
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-30.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-12-06 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-10-08 Listed $62,500 SOMO
• 2025-07-25 Listed $72,500 SOMO
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $75,000 SOMO
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $84,900 SOMO
• 2025-04-10 Listed $89,900 SOMO
• 2024-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $85 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.