4990 Mitchell Loop Rd · Dunes City, OR 97439

$450,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,665 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 282 Days on market

Built 1963 0.29 ac lot $169/sqft · 42% below area Est $775k · 42% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This custom 2 story ranch style home brings together comfort, space, and plenty of personality. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2665sqft, this home offers plenty of room for both everyday living and hosting family or friends. The open-concept living area invites gatherings around the heart of the home, while a sunroom drenches the space in natural light, perfect for sipping coffee in the morning or curling up with a book on a rainy afternoon. A seperate front room provides extra flexibility, and the upstairs office creates the ideal spot for working from home, studying, or just enjoying a quiet retreat. For those who love projects, hobbies, or adventures, this property has you covered. The 2 car-carport, full garage with a workshop and area to park an RV or boat gives you more than enough room for vehicles, tools, and toys. There is even a wood shed and a deeded 20ft easement, making access simple and stress free. Whether you're restoring a car, building something new, or just need a place for all your gear, there is a space here for you. Step outside and you’ll find a covered patio/sunroom that’s ready for year-round gardening, casual meals, or late-night conversations under the soft glow of the lights. Apple trees and mature landscaping surround the home, adding a touch of natural beauty and a sense of established charm that’s hard to find. And when it’s time for adventure, you’re only minutes away from the Oregon sand dunes, a playground for outdoor enthusiasts of all ages. This home isn’t just about having a place to live, it’s about creating a lifestyle filled with family gatherings, cozy nights, weekend projects, and spontaneous fun.

Key facts

• Upstairs office
• 2 car-carport
• Sunroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• SUNROOM
• SEPARATE FRONT ROOM
• UPSTAIRS OFFICE
• 2 CAR-CARPORT
• FULL GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (48.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (54.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (54.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.4% in Dunes City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#216 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 406 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($396k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $205,964 (54.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.69%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 18.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $774,708
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -41.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $166,769
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $552,344
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97439

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 18.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,688/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-1,228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,614

Max offer price $233,139

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   price $450,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $499,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $499,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $499,000 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    price $499,000 1712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1712 chars)

    This custom 2 story ranch style home brings together comfort, space, and plenty of personality. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2665sqft, this home offers plenty of room for both everyday living and hosting family or friends. The open-concept living area invites gatherings around the heart of the home, while a sunroom drenches the space in natural light, perfect for sipping coffee in the morning or curling up with a book on a rainy afternoon. A seperate front room provides extra flexibility, and the upstairs office creates the ideal spot for working from home, studying, or just enjoying a quiet retreat. For those who love projects, hobbies, or adventures, this property has you covered. The 2 car-carport, full garage with a workshop and area to park an RV or boat gives you more than enough room for vehicles, tools, and toys. There is even a wood shed and a deeded 20ft easement, making access simple and stress free. Whether you're restoring a car, building something new, or just need a place for all your gear, there is a space here for you. Step outside and you’ll find a covered patio/sunroom that’s ready for year-round gardening, casual meals, or late-night conversations under the soft glow of the lights. Apple trees and mature landscaping surround the home, adding a touch of natural beauty and a sense of established charm that’s hard to find. And when it’s time for adventure, you’re only minutes away from the Oregon sand dunes, a playground for outdoor enthusiasts of all ages. This home isn’t just about having a place to live, it’s about creating a lifestyle filled with family gatherings, cozy nights, weekend projects, and spontaneous fun.

17. 2025-11-26
    price $585,000 1712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1712 chars)

    This custom 2 story ranch style home brings together comfort, space, and plenty of personality. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2665sqft, this home offers plenty of room for both everyday living and hosting family or friends. The open-concept living area invites gatherings around the heart of the home, while a sunroom drenches the space in natural light, perfect for sipping coffee in the morning or curling up with a book on a rainy afternoon. A seperate front room provides extra flexibility, and the upstairs office creates the ideal spot for working from home, studying, or just enjoying a quiet retreat. For those who love projects, hobbies, or adventures, this property has you covered. The 2 car-carport, full garage with a workshop and area to park an RV or boat gives you more than enough room for vehicles, tools, and toys. There is even a wood shed and a deeded 20ft easement, making access simple and stress free. Whether you're restoring a car, building something new, or just need a place for all your gear, there is a space here for you. Step outside and you’ll find a covered patio/sunroom that’s ready for year-round gardening, casual meals, or late-night conversations under the soft glow of the lights. Apple trees and mature landscaping surround the home, adding a touch of natural beauty and a sense of established charm that’s hard to find. And when it’s time for adventure, you’re only minutes away from the Oregon sand dunes, a playground for outdoor enthusiasts of all ages. This home isn’t just about having a place to live, it’s about creating a lifestyle filled with family gatherings, cozy nights, weekend projects, and spontaneous fun.

18. 2025-09-09
    listed $625,000 Active 1712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1712 chars)

    This custom 2 story ranch style home brings together comfort, space, and plenty of personality. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 2665sqft, this home offers plenty of room for both everyday living and hosting family or friends. The open-concept living area invites gatherings around the heart of the home, while a sunroom drenches the space in natural light, perfect for sipping coffee in the morning or curling up with a book on a rainy afternoon. A seperate front room provides extra flexibility, and the upstairs office creates the ideal spot for working from home, studying, or just enjoying a quiet retreat. For those who love projects, hobbies, or adventures, this property has you covered. The 2 car-carport, full garage with a workshop and area to park an RV or boat gives you more than enough room for vehicles, tools, and toys. There is even a wood shed and a deeded 20ft easement, making access simple and stress free. Whether you're restoring a car, building something new, or just need a place for all your gear, there is a space here for you. Step outside and you’ll find a covered patio/sunroom that’s ready for year-round gardening, casual meals, or late-night conversations under the soft glow of the lights. Apple trees and mature landscaping surround the home, adding a touch of natural beauty and a sense of established charm that’s hard to find. And when it’s time for adventure, you’re only minutes away from the Oregon sand dunes, a playground for outdoor enthusiasts of all ages. This home isn’t just about having a place to live, it’s about creating a lifestyle filled with family gatherings, cozy nights, weekend projects, and spontaneous fun.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,688 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,365 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$677/yr (+$56/mo · 18.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥77°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$3,688
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$23,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,634
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siuslaw SD 97J
• NCES district ID: 4105100
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,892
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #9169
• State rank: #106 of 183 in OR

Livability — Dunes City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #14748

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,643

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.79%
• Current HPI: 717.84
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $499,000 RMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $585,000 RMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $625,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,688 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.