1291 Sussex Way · Hayward, CA 94544

$429,880

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2014 $284/sqft · 41% above area Est $304k · 41% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into a home that instantly feels right the moment you arrive—set in a truly one-of-a-kind location with a beautifully landscaped front and side yard, complete with mature fruit trees, a garden area, and inviting patio space perfect for relaxing or entertaining. A long stamped concrete driveway offers ample parking and leads to a convenient storage shed, while both the front and rear porches provide ideal spots to enjoy morning coffee or unwind in the evenings. Inside, you’ll find a bright and thoughtfully designed layout featuring 9-foot ceilings, crown molding in the tray ceilings, and abundant natural light throughout. The spacious living room showcases a tray ceiling, ce

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Garden area
• Storage shed

Tags

• LANDSCAPED FRONT YARD
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• GARDEN AREA
• PATIO SPACE
• STAMPED CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park community (GEORGIAN MANOR) with clubhouse, pool and spa; Senior community; Pet restrictions: number limit, size limit, pets allowed upon approval

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for two or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (mobile home) located in a park; Double-wide Karsten Elite model
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch, rear porch and additional porch/awning(s); Front yard, back yard and side yard; Garden and landscaped front and back; Low-maintenance yard space; Premium lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar and kitchen island; Stone/granite counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing range/oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with stall shower, double vanity, granite counters and walk-in closet(s); Other bathroom(s) with shower over tub and granite
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Pantry; Dining area; Fireplace with gas starter in the living room; Double-pane windows with window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $375k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,455 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,227
• List price: $429,880
• Delta: 41.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29050 S Westminster	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	5mo	$259,000	$180	78
1438 Buckingham Way	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	2mo	$270,000	$188	74
29424 Providence Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	2mo	$399,800	$285	69
29255 Harpoon Way	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	1mo	$265,000	$184	69
29330 Middleborough Way	0.32mi	3/3.0	1,640 (+8%)	2mo	$319,000	$195	66
29413 Sandburg Way	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-9%)	5mo	$327,000	$237	65
1352 Chelsea Way	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	5mo	$200,000	$154	60
29266 Nantucket Way	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (+10%)	1mo	$190,000	$114	60
29315 Harpoon Way	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (-12%)	1mo	$255,000	$191	56
1541 Ortega Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+12%)	4mo	$389,900	$229	54
29131 Delgado Rd	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	3mo	$258,000	$179	51
29138 Delgado Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	4mo	$284,000	$197	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-53,749
• Equity at exit: $64,097

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-31,033
• Equity at exit: $37,168

Cash invested: $120,366 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94544

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,250/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,405

Max offer price $429,880

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $520	-5% $398	+0% $276	+5% $155	+10% $33
Rent	-10% $-20	-5% $128	+0% $276	+5% $425	+10% $573
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $386	base $276	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,470
• Closing costs: $12,896
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
685 Carmar St Hayward, CA	4.0	2.0	1569	$3,900	$2.49	22d	1	0.37mi
28187 Karn Dr Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1335	$3,300	$2.47	5d	1	0.45mi
29189 Lassen St Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1180	$3,500	$2.97	44d	1	0.65mi
75 Quist Ave Hayward, CA	4.0	2.5	1866	$3,895	$2.09	13d	1	0.80mi
317 Tennyson Rd Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0	1050	$3,395	$3.23	13d	1	0.92mi
111 Notion Way Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1718	$4,250	$2.47	44d	1	0.95mi
29163 Dixon St Hayward, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$3,595	$3.27	2d	5	0.96mi
206 Span Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	3.5	1888	$2,600	$1.38	44d	1	0.99mi
981 Cheryl Ann Cir #40 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$3,800	$3.05	44d	1	1.01mi
27703 Persimmon Dr Hayward, CA	3.0	3.0	1549	$3,695	$2.39	44d	1	1.03mi
376 Line St Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,500	$2.72	2d	1	1.08mi
28850 Dixon St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$3,406	$3.76	2d	10	1.09mi
397 Line St Hayward, CA	4.0	3.5	1885	$5,000	$2.65	18d	1	1.11mi
29384 Hub Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1684	$3,950	$2.35	2d	1	1.13mi
29384 Hub Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1684	$3,950	$2.35	4d	1	1.13mi
27479 Green Wood Rd Unit 1546495P Hayward, CA	4.0	2.0	2120	$5,258	$2.48	15d	1	1.16mi
28168 Mission Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1196	$4,799	$4.01	2d	9	1.26mi
2901 Sorrento Way Union City, CA	3.0	2.5	1869	$5,000	$2.68	2d	1	1.27mi
26730 Tyrrell Ave Hayward, CA	4.0	2.0	1250	$3,650	$2.92	44d	1	1.30mi
28877 Hideaway St Hayward, CA	4.0	3.5	2022	$4,600	$2.27	44d	1	1.31mi
837 Hancock St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$4,044	$4.23	2d	14	1.34mi
1234 McFarlane Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1311	$3,660	$2.79	13d	1	1.35mi
27715 Cliffwood Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1128	$3,800	$3.37	44d	1	1.39mi
149 Orchard Park Pl Hayward, CA	4.0	3.0	2089	$5,000	$2.39	44d	1	1.42mi
2540 Lakeport Dr Hayward, CA	4.0	2.5	2134	$3,950	$1.85	2d	1	1.47mi
2506 Balmoral St Union City, CA	4.0	2.5	2008	$3,500	$1.74	13d	1	1.48mi
287 Ebony Way Hayward, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$3,450	$2.16	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $429,880 Active 1544-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,267 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,017/yr (+$168/mo · 161.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,080
• − Property taxes: −$1,250
• − Insurance: −$3,974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,604
• − Management: −$3,604
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable loss: −$3,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$951
• After-tax cash flow: $4,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 76,947
• Household income: $107,785
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2573.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 28% Two or more races 13% White 11% Black 7% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 8% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -907.12%
• Current HPI: 315.6082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.58%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $429,880 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,250 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.