4543 Joshua Dr · Mountain Mesa, CA 93240

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 734 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1966 8,276 sqft lot $95/sqft · 16% above area Est $103k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the possibilities with this view property in Mountain Mesa! Enjoy peaceful surroundings and scenic views right from your doorstep. This home offers lots of potential and is a great opportunity to make it your own. Whether you're looking to renovate, invest, or create a weekend retreat, this property is full of promise. Perfect for investors or buyers ready to bring their vision to life. Sold as is, giving you the freedom to design and improve to your taste. Don't miss this chance to turn potential into value in a beautiful location!

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Owned property
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; 0.19-acre lot; Lot measured in square feet; Vacant

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor/wall heater
• Interior features: Formal living room; Range/oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,092 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $70k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.38%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,447
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -32.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12201 Highway 178 #14	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-2%)	10mo	$55,000	$76	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $69,726
• Equity at exit: $42,030

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.44×
• Total profit: $165,422
• Equity at exit: $74,572

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $570

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $70,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $70,000 Active 547-char remark
15. 1996-11-06
    soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,080
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,179
• After-tax cash flow: $7,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Mountain Mesa

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1092
• US rank: #25418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Mesa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $70,000 GEMLS
• 1996-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.