1081 Cr 4249 · Tenaha, TX 75974

$79,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2012 4.01 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 BEDROOM 3 BATH ON OVER 4 ACRES IN QUIET COUNTRY SETTING, LARGE OPEN DEN AND KITCHEN, 2 STORAGE BUILDINGS / WORKSHOP.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Country setting
• Storage buildings

Tags

• COUNTRY SETTING
• OPEN DEN
• KITCHEN
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,118 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Timpson ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #614 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $203 of equity ($552 loan paydown + $-349 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.39%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $26,202
• Equity at exit: $21,470

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $70,401
• Equity at exit: $24,464

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75974

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,240/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $703

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $519	-5% $496	+0% $473	+5% $451	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $370	-5% $422	+0% $473	+5% $525	+10% $576
Rate	-1.0pp $514	-0.5pp $494	base $473	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $79,900 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    4 BEDROOM 3 BATH ON OVER 4 ACRES IN QUIET COUNTRY SETTING, LARGE OPEN DEN AND KITCHEN, 2 STORAGE BUILDINGS / WORKSHOP.

18. 2026-03-25
    listed $84,900 Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    4 BEDROOM 3 BATH ON OVER 4 ACRES IN QUIET COUNTRY SETTING, LARGE OPEN DEN AND KITCHEN, 2 STORAGE BUILDINGS / WORKSHOP.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,240 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$19/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,240
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,125
• After-tax cash flow: $4,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Timpson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842840
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,041
• Composite: 26.09/100
• National rank: #7293
• State rank: #614 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tenaha

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1118
• US rank: #19771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,744
• Population (ZIP): 2,744

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,199 people
• By 2030: 24,986 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 24,646 · -2.2%
• By 2050: 24,144 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 22,328 · -11.4%
• By 2100: 18,734 · -25.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.5% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.3pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+49.1 2008: R+44.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.44%
• Current HPI: 154.8981
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $79,900 LAAR
• 2026-03-25 Listed $84,900 LAAR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,240 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.