2512 Mishawaka Ave · South Bend, IN 46615

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,427 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1919 5,148 sqft lot Est $181k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity with built-in flexibility! This duplex features two units—a 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom unit on the main level and a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom unit upstairs—offering multiple income streams or owner-occupant potential. The property includes a detached garage that presents a unique value-add opportunity, with the potential of additional living space. With the right vision and improvements, this property could significantly increase its rental income and overall value. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio, create a multi-unit income property, or maximize cash flow through added space, this duplex offers strong upside potential and versatility.

Key facts

• 5,148 sq ft lot
• Built 1919
• Listed 16 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.4% in South Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#365 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• South Bend Community School Corporation (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #284 of 301 in IN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nuner Fine Arts Academy (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #921 of 994 statewide, top 94%, 479 students, 90% FRL); Jefferson Traditional School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #284 of 330 statewide, top 87%, 516 students, 64% FRL); Adams High School (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #195 of 369 statewide, top 53%, 1,976 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 73 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 754 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (460 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $125k implies a 276% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,229
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2512 Mishawaka Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,427 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$67	94
1111 S 27th St	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,464 (+3%)	2mo	$155,000	$106	77
1009 S 26 St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,330 (-7%)	2mo	$199,900	$150	72
1225 S 27th St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+8%)	0mo	$149,500	$97	68
833 S 34th St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-2%)	0mo	$178,000	$127	65
930 S 28th St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-9%)	2mo	$180,000	$138	64
2520 Wall St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-12%)	1mo	$168,800	$135	63
1734 Southwood Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+3%)	2mo	$240,000	$164	63
1123 S 21st St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,235 (-14%)	0mo	$179,900	$146	52
205 N Middleboro Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,588 (+11%)	4mo	$165,000	$104	48
1226 S 30th St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,214 (-15%)	5mo	$120,000	$99	47
2806 Milburn Blvd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,585 (+11%)	1mo	$172,400	$109	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,530
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $36,642
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46615

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,316/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,245

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $232	+0% $197	+5% $162	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $138	+0% $197	+5% $256	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $229	base $197	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
819 S 24th St South Bend, IN	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,795	$1.21	44d	1	0.13mi
754 S 23rd St South Bend, IN	3.0	1.0	884	$1,300	$1.47	44d	1	0.19mi
737 S 30th St South Bend, IN	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	0.31mi
526 S 28th St South Bend, IN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	14d	1	0.36mi
1106 S 20th St South Bend, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$924	$1.04	14d	1	0.38mi
931 S 34th St South Bend, IN	3.0	1.5	1656	$1,550	$0.94	44d	1	0.55mi
3001 E Jefferson Blvd South Bend, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,329	$1.57	14d	21	0.75mi
3530 Northside Blvd South Bend, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	14d	1	0.78mi
1729 E Calvert St South Bend, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	44d	1	0.92mi
365 W Front St Mishawaka, IN	2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$3,050	$3.70	14d	1	1.40mi
1912 Miami St Unit 1912 South Bend, IN	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,400	$1.08	44d	1	1.47mi
116 W Mishawaka Ave Mishawaka, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$1,914	$2.02	14d	31	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2014-03-28
   soldstatus $33,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,316 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,316 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,316
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$117
• After-tax cash flow: $2,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Bend Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810290
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,935
• Composite: 14.21/100
• National rank: #9452
• State rank: #284 of 301 in IN

Livability — South Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #13730

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bend, IN
• County: Saint Joseph County · 189,048 people
• City population: 99,767
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• Population (ZIP): 14,190
• Household income: $62,964
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 273,186 people
• By 2030: 273,594 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 271,641 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 269,187 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 263,136 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 245,659 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.1pp · 2024: 1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+17.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.82%
• Current HPI: 242.1938
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.27%
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+275.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $125,000 IRMLS
• 2014-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $33,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,316 · +142.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.