3411 S Camino Seco -- #182 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$49,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 328 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1973 Good condition $51/sqft · 64% below area $749/mo HOA · 75% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.5

Listing remarks MLS

This charming Marlette, 1973 14X70 home is on a large lot with mature fruit trees. 2 bedrooms 1 ½ baths. 10X21 screened porch for relaxing in an outdoor atmosphere. Laundry in unit. Blinds and window coverings stay. Large storage shed at end of 3-car carport. 2021 new gas furnace and AC unit. 2021 new water heater. Newer screens in add-on room, ceramic tile on floors, laundry inside, step up kitchen, beamed living room ceiling.

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Laundry in unit
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• SCREENED PORCH
• LAUNDRY IN UNIT
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• NEW GAS FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $5k (89.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($996 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $5k (89.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate -1.1% vs local median 3.8% in Tucson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ford Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 201 students, 72% FRL); Secrist Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #194 of 218 statewide, top 90%, 304 students, 76% FRL); Santa Rita High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 392 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 75% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,472 (89.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 89% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: -1.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -26.37%
• DSCR: -0.17
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,575
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -63.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3822 S Desert Lake Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,050 (+7%)	1mo	$245,000	$233	70
4735 S Windrose Dr	1.11mi	2/2.0	1,011 (+3%)	0mo	$228,000	$226	59
7870 E Victoria Dr	1.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (0%)	2mo	$241,000	$246	54
8357 E Avenida De Las Pampas	1.29mi	2/1.0	904 (-8%)	0mo	$180,000	$199	48
2756 S Oakenshield Way	0.57mi	2/2.0	799 (-18%)	2mo	$203,000	$254	46
7867 E Roget Dr	1.44mi	2/2.0	1,108 (+13%)	1mo	$225,000	$203	42
2672 S Black Moon Dr	1.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+16%)	0mo	$279,000	$245	35
2642 S Black Moon Dr	1.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+16%)	0mo	$347,500	$305	35
7735 E Basswood Pl	1.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,185 (+21%)	2mo	$273,000	$230	34
8857 E Fruit Tree Dr	1.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,165 (+19%)	2mo	$272,000	$233	34
8986 E Weyburn Dr	0.94mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,165 (+19%)	3mo	$265,000	$227	33
2710 S Black Moon Dr	1.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+16%)	3mo	$320,000	$281	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -96.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.15×
• Total profit: $-30,084
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -3.35×
• Total profit: $-60,726
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active
• Months of supply: 60.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $56,450 ($54/sqft)
• Median days on market: 195 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +158.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$749
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $-307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $5,472

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-273	-5% $-290	+0% $-307	+5% $-324	+10% $-342
Rent	-10% $-386	-5% $-346	+0% $-307	+5% $-268	+10% $-228
Rate	-1.0pp $-282	-0.5pp $-294	base $-307	+0.5pp $-320	+1.0pp $-333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3673 S Camino Seco Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	800	$945	$1.18	72d	1	0.25mi
8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	799	$1,295	$1.62	69d	1	0.54mi
8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	799	$1,295	$1.62	28d	1	0.54mi
9170 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	565	$1,094	$1.93	17d	4	0.74mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,584	$1.83	16d	27	0.94mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,094	$1.79	93d	1	1.00mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,229	$2.01	35d	1	1.00mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,308	$1.49	52d	1	1.00mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,292	$1.47	17d	1	1.00mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	20d	1	1.10mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	52d	1	1.10mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	70d	1	1.10mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	28d	1	1.10mi
7983 E Escalante Rd Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	63d	1	1.11mi
3711 S Bobby Dr Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$995	$1.81	17d	1	1.13mi
2425 S Rose Peak Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,200	$1.46	66d	1	1.16mi
9746 E Sascha St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,800	$1.76	39d	1	1.35mi
9961 E Skyward Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,550	$1.53	52d	1	1.47mi
3892 S Evergreen Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	730	$1,295	$1.77	93d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail $749/mo · $8,988/yr

• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 328 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 327 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $49,900 Active 326 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $49,900 Active 325 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $49,900 Active 324 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $49,900 Active 323 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 320 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $49,900 Active 319 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $49,900 Active 318 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $49,900 Active 317 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $49,900 Active 315 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $49,900 Active 313 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $49,900 Active 312 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $49,900 Active 311 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $49,900 Active 310 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $49,900 Active 309 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 307 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 306 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $49,900 Active 305 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $49,900 Active 304 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $49,900 Active 303 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 302 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 301 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $49,900 Active 300 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $49,900 Active 299 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $49,900 Active 298 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 296 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $49,900 Active 295 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 294 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 292 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 291 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 290 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 289 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $49,900 Active 288 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $49,900 Active 287 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $49,900 Active 286 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $49,900 Active 285 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $49,900 Active 283 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $49,900 Active 281 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $49,900 Active 280 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 277 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $49,900 Active 276 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $49,900 Active 275 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $49,900 Active 274 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 272 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $49,900 Active 269 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,900 Active 268 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 267 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 266 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 263 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$956
• − Management: −$956
• − HOA: −$8,988
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable loss: −$4,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,006
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,900–$14,700 screening

This charming Marlette manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds and window coverings — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Replace flooring in living room — Freshens the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ford Elementary F AZ #687/1,109 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Secrist Middle School F AZ #194/218 Nat'l #13,419/14,009 High Santa Rita High School F AZ #358/381 Nat'l #16,644/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-14 Listed $49,900 ARMLS