The Sabal Interior Plan · Ocean Springs, MS 39564

$242,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,521 sqft · Townhouse · 462 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Sabal Interior in Ocean Springs, Mississippi one of our new D. R. Horton townhomes in Harper Grove Townhomes. The Sabal is an interior townhome unit featuring a single car garage. With approximately 1,521 square feet, this thoughtfully designed floorplan includes 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, giving you the flexibility and comfort your lifestyle demands. On the main level, you'll find an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining, and living areas flow together seamlessly. The kitchen is equipped with shaker-style cabinetry, quartz countertops, an undermount sink, and a complete stainless steel appliance package, including a smooth-top range, microwave with hood, and a quiet dishwasher. A large walk-in pantry adds convenience and storage space. Upstairs, all three bedrooms are designed with luxury vinyl plank flooring no carpet in this home. Each room offers ample closet space and can easily be adapted to serve as a guest room, home office, or hobby space. The secondary bathroom features a tub/shower combo, while the primary suite includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with a standing shower, double vanity with quartz countertops, and linen shelving. The Sabal includes D. R. Horton's Home is Connected® Smart Home package, giving you control of many home features from your smart device whether you're at home or away. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Coastal setting
• Upstairs bedrooms
• Granite countertops

Tags

• COASTAL SETTING
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN FLOORS
• STYLISH SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPSTAIRS BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $242,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,090.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Springs — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MS, #420 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Park Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #27 of 375 statewide, top 8%, 530 students, 99% FRL); Ocean Springs Upper Elementary Scho (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #12 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,332 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #1 of 197 statewide, top 0%, 1,899 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 1062 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 462 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,884 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 462 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,090
• List price: $242,900
• Delta: -4.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
137 Harper Grove Cir	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	2mo	$239,900	$158	98
129 Harper Grove Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	3mo	$239,900	$158	96
127 Harper Grove Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	4mo	$239,900	$158	96
131 Harper Grove Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	4mo	$249,900	$164	96
125 Harper Grove Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	5mo	$239,900	$158	95
103 Harper Grove Cir	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	0mo	$242,900	$160	94
135 Harper Grove Cir	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	3mo	$239,900	$158	93
113 Harper Grove Cir	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	7mo	$244,900	$161	89
115 Harper Grove Cir	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	9mo	$244,900	$161	87
121 Harper Grove Cir	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	5mo	$253,090	$166	74
123 Harper Grove Cir	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,521 (0%)	7mo	$239,900	$158	72
139 Harper Grove Cir	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,710 (+12%)	3mo	$269,900	$158	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-59,042
• Equity at exit: $37,737

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-83,145
• Equity at exit: $21,883

Cash invested: $70,865 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.7 mo (38%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $262,900 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 279 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 1062
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,796/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $219,351

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-146	+0% $-233	+5% $-321	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-309	+0% $-233	+5% $-157	+10% $-82
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-169	base $-233	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,272
• Closing costs: $7,593
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3810 Timberlake Dr Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.5	1944	$1,950	$1.00	6d	1	0.14mi
3825 Timberlake Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,200	$1.34	116d	1	0.16mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,296	$1.22	116d	1	0.26mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,405	$1.32	109d	1	0.26mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,337	$1.26	139d	1	0.26mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,434	$1.35	3d	1	0.26mi
13100 Ronda Ln Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,950	$1.26	0d	1	0.32mi
602 Ronda Ln Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,900	$1.27	6d	1	0.32mi
3910 Yosemite Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1070	$1,595	$1.49	139d	1	0.37mi
108 Clear Springs Cir Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,400	$1.38	6d	1	0.39mi
132 Gettysburg Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	3.0	1689	$2,195	$1.30	116d	1	0.45mi
7003 Ute Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,195	$1.10	116d	1	0.45mi
3500 Groveland Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1173	$1,750	$1.49	0d	1	0.49mi
1225 Parktown Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	1.5	1075	$1,425	$1.33	5d	1	0.59mi
4205 Yosemite Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,450	$1.16	6d	1	0.70mi
1221 King Henry Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1599	$1,800	$1.13	139d	1	0.73mi
106 Booth Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	109d	1	0.74mi
5513 Sioux Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,500	$1.47	6d	1	0.78mi
118 Linnet Dr Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,350	$1.07	6d	1	0.82mi
4901 Riley Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1229	$940	$0.76	0d	1	0.99mi
4719 Gibson Rd Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.5	1370	$1,600	$1.17	6d	1	1.31mi
4008 Breezy Hill Ln Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	3.0	1600	$3,200	$2.00	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $242,900 Active 462 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $242,900 Active 461 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $242,900 Active 460 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $242,900 Active 459 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $242,900 Active 457 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $242,900 Active 456 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $242,900 Active 455 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $242,900 Active 454 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $242,900 Active 453 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $242,900 Active 452 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $242,900 Active 451 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $242,900 Active 450 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $242,900 Active 444 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $242,900 Active 443 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $242,900 Active 442 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $242,900 Active 439 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $242,900 Active 438 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $242,900 Active 436 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $242,900 Active 435 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $242,900 Active 434 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $242,900 Active 433 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $242,900 Active 432 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $242,900 Active 431 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $242,900 Active 430 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $242,900 Active 429 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $242,900 Active 428 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $242,900 Active 427 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $242,900 Active 426 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $242,900 Active 425 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $242,900 Active 424 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $242,900 Active 423 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $242,900 Active 422 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $242,900 Active 421 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $242,900 Active 420 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $242,900 Active 419 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $242,900 Active 418 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $242,900 Active 417 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $242,900 Active 416 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $242,900 Active 415 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $242,900 Active 414 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $242,900 Active 413 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $242,900 Active 412 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 411 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 408 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $239,900 Active 406 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $239,900 Active 404 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $239,900 Active 402 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,900 Active 400 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,900 Active 399 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,900 Active 398 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,177
• − Property taxes: −$3,796
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$7,363
• Taxable loss: −$7,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,742
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior and interior touch-ups to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pecan Park Elementary School B- MS #27/375 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Ocean Springs Upper Elementary Scho B MS #12/179 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Ocean Springs High School B+ MS #1/197 Nat'l #2,083/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

A Composite livability gradescore 86/100

Livability — Ocean Springs

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #420

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Springs, MS
• County: Jackson County · 146,926 people
• City population: 43,240
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $239,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $244,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-18 Listed $249,900 Zillow