495 Graywood Dr · Ballwin, MO 63011

$253,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1968 10,227 sqft lot $88/sqft · 42% below area Est $436k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bath 3 bed home ready for a new owner! Home sits directly across from the neighborhood lake and right next to common ground. This rare value add home will not last long!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has HOA with monthly fee; association amenities and fee inclusions listed as other (HOA info unknown)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half levels; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Lot includes other features

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total, including 2 on the main level and 1 on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (configuration includes bathrooms on main, upper and lower levels)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement; Fireplace (1) — other type

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $253k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.0% in Ballwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MO, #357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Henry Elem. (math 58% / reading 71%, grade B, #70 of 1,115 statewide, top 8%, 536 students, 8% FRL); West High (math 61% / reading 74%, grade B, #15 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 1,436 students, 9% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 146 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $253,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.13%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,204
• List price: $253,000
• Delta: -42.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
477 Ironwood Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,919 (+1%)	5mo	$415,000	$142	82
203 Morewood Dr	0.35mi	4/4.0	3,066 (+6%)	2mo	$515,000	$168	67
277 Oak Path Dr	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,836 (-2%)	2mo	$590,000	$208	64
618 Shady Meadows Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,848 (-1%)	4mo	$550,000	$193	62
514 Stephanie Ln	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,726 (-6%)	4mo	$320,000	$117	59
426 Brooktree Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,991 (+4%)	1mo	$484,900	$162	56
571 Arblay Pl	0.62mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,730 (-5%)	1mo	$500,000	$183	55
828 Windmill Dr	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,126 (+8%)	2mo	$524,900	$168	52
109 Baxter Acres Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,586 (-10%)	1mo	$339,900	$131	46
114 Lea Meadows Dr	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,228 (+12%)	2mo	$585,000	$181	45
323 Oakleigh Woods Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	3,237 (+12%)	1mo	$489,000	$151	42
603 Rue Montand Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,528 (-12%)	5mo	$500,000	$198	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-16,408
• Equity at exit: $37,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,562
• Equity at exit: $21,875

Cash invested: $70,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63011

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,811/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,215

Max offer price $253,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $623	-5% $552	+0% $480	+5% $408	+10% $337
Rent	-10% $257	-5% $369	+0% $480	+5% $592	+10% $703
Rate	-1.0pp $608	-0.5pp $544	base $480	+0.5pp $415	+1.0pp $348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,250
• Closing costs: $7,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
874 Hollyridge Dr Ballwin, MO	4.0	3.0	3900	$3,400	$0.87	8d	1	0.40mi
612 Morewood Ct Manchester, MO	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,341	$1.15	12d	1	0.42mi
822 Dutch Mill Dr Ballwin, MO	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,400	$1.18	44d	1	0.44mi
911 Clayworth Dr Ballwin, MO	4.0	2.0	2054	$2,929	$1.43	5d	1	0.51mi
606 Rue Montand Dr Ballwin, MO	4.0	2.0	2023	$3,999	$1.98	44d	1	0.65mi
8 Parkrose Ct Ballwin, MO	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,780	$1.21	11d	1	0.93mi
8 Parkrose Ct Unit NA Ballwin, MO	4.0	3.0	2210	$2,699	$1.22	2d	1	0.93mi
402 Iron Warrior Ln Manchester, MO	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,400	$1.09	44d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $253,000 Active 173-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,811 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,811 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,172
• − Property taxes: −$3,811
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,710
• − Management: −$2,710
• − Depreciation: −$7,360
• Taxable income: $1,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$443
• After-tax cash flow: $5,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ballwin

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #357

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballwin, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 91,586
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,920
• Household income: $124,454
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 455.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.82%
• Current HPI: 234.1279
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $253,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,811 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.