1057 Shell Point Rd NE · Crescent, GA 31331

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1972 0.83 ac lot $103/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in desirable Shell Point Subdivision, this home features a large sunroom upon entry. Step into the kitchen/living area that has a brick fireplace that extends the length of the wall. Enjoy many memories in these 2 areas of this unique fishing and boating community. Behind the Living room are 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. There is also a free standing 22'x27' building that can be used for boat storage or workshop. Shell Point has a wonderful DEEP WATER community dock, boat landing, and fish cleaning station, that is also a perfect place to watch a beautiful sunrise or sunset over the Sapelo River. Ideally located close to the conveniences in Eulonia and I-95, this property will not last long.

Key facts

• Boat landing
• Large sunroom
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• LARGE SUNROOM
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• FREE STANDING BUILDING
• DEEP WATER COMMUNITY DOCK
• BOAT LANDING
• FISH CLEANING STATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-777/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.0% in Crescent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mcintosh County (town): math 23% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #118 of 174 in GA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in McIntosh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McIntosh County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $159k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,247 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,236
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -56.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1062 Pine Harbor Marina Rd NE	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,546 (+0%)	14mo	$100,000	$65	57
1068 Fiddler Trce NE	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,560 (+1%)	12mo	$375,000	$240	47
4339 Fair Hope Rd NE	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-8%)	23mo	$130,000	$92	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $82,464
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $246,069
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31331

• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,849/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,334

Max offer price $147,564

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    status $159,000 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-02-08
    price $199,000 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Located in desirable Shell Point Subdivision, this home features a large sunroom upon entry. Step into the kitchen/living area that has a brick fireplace that extends the length of the wall. Enjoy many memories in these 2 areas of this unique fishing and boating community. Behind the Living room are 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. There is also a free standing 22'x27' building that can be used for boat storage or workshop. Shell Point has a wonderful DEEP WATER community dock, boat landing, and fish cleaning station, that is also a perfect place to watch a beautiful sunrise or sunset over the Sapelo River. Ideally located close to the conveniences in Eulonia and I-95, this property will not last long.

16. 2025-11-17
    listed $225,000 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Located in desirable Shell Point Subdivision, this home features a large sunroom upon entry. Step into the kitchen/living area that has a brick fireplace that extends the length of the wall. Enjoy many memories in these 2 areas of this unique fishing and boating community. Behind the Living room are 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths. There is also a free standing 22'x27' building that can be used for boat storage or workshop. Shell Point has a wonderful DEEP WATER community dock, boat landing, and fish cleaning station, that is also a perfect place to watch a beautiful sunrise or sunset over the Sapelo River. Ideally located close to the conveniences in Eulonia and I-95, this property will not last long.

17. 1999-11-01
    soldstatus $78,400
18. 1990-10-18
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,849 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,849 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,849
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$3,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$852
• After-tax cash flow: $76/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcintosh County
• NCES district ID: 1303600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,742
• Composite: 22.08/100
• National rank: #8188
• State rank: #118 of 174 in GA

Livability — Crescent

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,997

Population outlook (McIntosh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,922 people
• By 2030: 12,156 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 10,332 · -20.0%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 5,506 · -57.4%
• By 2100: 3,635 · -71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 28% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% French 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McIntosh

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.6) · D 35.5% · R 64.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -28.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.6 2020: R+21.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.75%
• Current HPI: 329.1351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+397.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $199,000 GIAR
• 2025-11-17 Listed $225,000 GIAR
• 1999-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,400 Public Records
• 1990-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,849 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.