123 Gray St · San Antonio, TX 78208

$98,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1948 7,601 sqft lot Est $163k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Located near the historic Government Hill district, this property offers a great opportunity for homeowners, investors, or developers in one of San Antonio’s growing central areas. The home features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and can be restored into a comfortable residence or serve as a buy and hold, flip, or development opportunity. The real value is the spacious 7,600 sq ft lot and its development potential. Currently zoned R6, the property allows for the possibility of adding an ADU, creating an opportunity for additional rental income or multigenerational living. The zoning may also present the potential to rezone to R2 to allow for duplex development, making this an attracti

Key facts

• Zoned r6
• Duplex development
• Near the pearl

Tags

• SPACIOUS 7600 SQ FT LOT
• ZONED R6
• MULTIGENERATIONAL LIVING
• POTENTIAL TO REZONE TO R2
• DUPLEX DEVELOPMENT
• NEAR THE PEARL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-64/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (1.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pershing El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 303 students, 96% FRL); Davis Middle (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 545 students, 96% FRL, charter); Houston H S (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 856 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 80% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 30 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,163/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($27k/yr) (locally 526% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,029 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1222 Mason St	0.30mi	2/2.0 (+1)	750 (-6%)	4mo	$223,900	$299	64
2222 Osburn	0.49mi	1/1.0	748 (-6%)	12mo	$99,900	$134	56
1810 Rogers Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (+1)	766 (-4%)	16mo	$156,000	$204	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $51,109
• Equity at exit: $89,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $146,250
• Equity at exit: $192,333

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78208

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,163 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,368/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $98,051

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $23	+0% $-5	+5% $-33	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-51	+0% $-5	+5% $41	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $20	base $-5	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
634 Hood St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	762	$1,100	$1.44	45d	1	0.20mi
512 Bee St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$845	$1.26	25d	1	0.37mi
514 Bee St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$895	$1.33	45d	1	0.38mi
2654 Dignowity Ave Unit 102 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.5	980	$1,450	$1.48	45d	1	0.38mi
601 Coleman St Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	45d	1	0.43mi
923 E Carson St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,821	$2.12	0d	36	0.50mi
925 E Carson St Unit 610 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	716	$1,413	$1.97	0d	1	0.54mi
925 E Carson St Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,910	$1.87	0d	1	0.54mi
1010 Locke St Unit 610 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	715	$723	$1.01	0d	1	0.55mi
1010 Locke St Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$871	$0.92	0d	1	0.55mi
822 E Carson St Unit 5 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	577	$800	$1.39	45d	1	0.57mi
323 Gabriel San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,375	$1.38	25d	1	0.71mi
323 Gabriel Unit 1 201 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1000	$1,375	$1.38	45d	1	0.71mi
1017 N Mittman St San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	726	$910	$1.25	45d	1	0.73mi
819 Larry San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	688	$1,149	$1.67	45d	1	0.74mi
414 Rotary San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	624	$1,095	$1.75	45d	1	0.74mi
1411 Lamar St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,125	$1.61	45d	1	0.78mi
1223 N Walters St Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	970	$1,039	$1.07	0d	1	0.79mi
1223 N Walters St Unit 610 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	732	$869	$1.19	0d	1	0.79mi
1323 Lamar St #1 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$999	$1.11	45d	1	0.80mi
1219 Muncey San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	944	$1,350	$1.43	25d	1	0.80mi
1121 Willow St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.91mi
1810 Burnet St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	620	$1,045	$1.69	16d	1	0.92mi
2142 Lamar St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.92mi
216 Lucas St Unit 8 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	565	$800	$1.42	45d	1	0.94mi
410 E Carson St Unit 3 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.5	900	$1,800	$2.00	45d	1	0.95mi
404 E Carson St #2 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	697	$1,625	$2.33	45d	1	0.96mi
1722 N Pine St Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	636	$800	$1.26	25d	1	0.97mi
710 Poinsettia San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	708	$1,195	$1.69	0d	1	0.98mi
710 Poinsettia San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	708	$1,195	$1.69	45d	1	0.98mi
208 Victor St Unit 13 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	545	$575	$1.06	19d	1	0.99mi
307 Victor St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	612	$1,000	$1.63	25d	1	0.99mi
322 Andrews St Unit B San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,900	$2.24	45d	1	1.00mi
322 Andrews St Unit A San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,900	$2.24	45d	1	1.00mi
831 E Grayson St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	787	$874	$1.11	16d	4	1.00mi
209 Victor St San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	620	$575	$0.93	25d	2	1.01mi
947 Poinsettia San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	564	$595	$1.05	45d	1	1.02mi
1908 Nolan St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$1,049	$1.25	0d	1	1.02mi
928 Poinsettia St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	675	$990	$1.47	45d	1	1.02mi
819 E Grayson St San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$825	$1.00	25d	4	1.03mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-09
   listed $98,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,368 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,368 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,545
• − Property taxes: −$4,368
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$375
• After-tax cash flow: $310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838730
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,952
• Composite: 13.57/100
• National rank: #9512
• State rank: #805 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,861
• Household income: $26,595
• Rent vs Own: 67.5% rent · 32.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 526.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Black 25% Two or more races 22% White 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 30% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.53%
• Current HPI: 432.482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $98,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,368 · +94.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.