202 Saddle Ranch Drive Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$119,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 253 Days on market

Good condition $74/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Champion model home delivers a generous 4-bedroom, 2-bath layout perfect for big families or anyone needing extra space. With an open kitchen, roomy living area, and private bedrooms, this home gives you plenty of room! Kitchen features a large island perfect for hosting. Call us today to schedule a tour of this beautiful home! * All home series, floor plans, specifications, dimensions, features, materials, pricing and availability shown on this website are subject to change.

Key facts

• Listed 253 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $719 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tobias El (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 683 students, 52% FRL); Laura B Wallace Middle (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 789 students, 53% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.69%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,103
• List price: $119,995
• Delta: -61.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $20,655
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $54,899
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1820
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $719

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $119,995

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $802	-5% $761	+0% $719	+5% $678	+10% $636
Rent	-10% $564	-5% $642	+0% $719	+5% $797	+10% $874
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $750	base $719	+0.5pp $688	+1.0pp $657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,999
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
526 Harvest Moon Pkwy Kyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1624	$1,699	$1.05	3d	1	0.04mi
273 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,795	$1.43	19d	1	0.19mi
140 Plum Path Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,149	$1.10	3d	1	0.25mi
410 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,795	$1.08	45d	1	0.27mi
205 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,795	$1.32	6d	1	0.29mi
205 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,825	$1.34	45d	1	0.29mi
187 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,795	$1.45	45d	1	0.30mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	3d	1	0.33mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	13d	1	0.33mi
510 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1359	$1,695	$1.25	45d	1	0.35mi
120 Beech Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$1,945	$0.95	19d	1	0.36mi
261 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,849	$1.35	45d	1	0.39mi
270 Sheep Trail Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,785	$1.13	45d	1	0.42mi
130 Peach Tree Pass Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2198	$1,900	$0.86	19d	1	0.46mi
185 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,700	$1.16	16d	1	0.50mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	25d	1	0.53mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	6d	1	0.53mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	16d	1	0.53mi
149 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	16d	1	0.53mi
850 Bunton Reserve Blvd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,800	$1.62	25d	1	0.58mi
1685 Twin Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,200	$1.26	45d	1	0.58mi
131 Connor Elkins Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2015	$2,000	$0.99	6d	1	0.63mi
106 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	19d	1	0.63mi
112 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	6d	1	0.63mi
1579 Violet Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,750	$1.23	25d	1	0.71mi
1477 Treeta Trl Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,759	$1.13	23d	1	0.72mi
1469 Breanna Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,650	$1.24	19d	1	0.73mi
1437 Treeta Trl Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,895	$1.50	45d	1	0.77mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.78mi
1628 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,180	$1.35	45d	1	0.87mi
1180 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$1,999	$1.10	6d	1	0.89mi
355 Evening Star Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,300	$1.21	45d	1	0.89mi
366 Silver Springs Bnd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,145	$1.12	5d	1	0.91mi
521 Bunton Reserve Blvd Kyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1870	$2,341	$1.25	0d	15	0.92mi
195 Salt Springs Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	19d	1	0.97mi
1441 Star Mdw Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,900	$1.18	0d	1	1.01mi
208 Discovery Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1893	$2,025	$1.07	45d	1	1.03mi
208 Discovery Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1893	$1,895	$1.00	0d	1	1.03mi
1187 Amy Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1904	$2,100	$1.10	19d	1	1.03mi
148 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,800	$1.11	45d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,995 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,995 Active 250 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,995 Active 249 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,995 Active 248 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,995 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,995 Active 245 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,995 Active 241 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,995 Active 240 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,995 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,995 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,995 Active 235 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,995 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,995 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,995 Active 232 DOM
15. 2025-10-11
    listed $119,995 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    This Champion model home delivers a generous 4-bedroom, 2-bath layout perfect for big families or anyone needing extra space. With an open kitchen, roomy living area, and private bedrooms, this home gives you plenty of room! Kitchen features a large island perfect for hosting. Call us today to schedule a tour of this beautiful home! * All home series, floor plans, specifications, dimensions, features, materials, pricing and availability shown on this website are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $7,147
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,715
• After-tax cash flow: $6,917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Champion model home is in excellent condition with a good layout and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-11 Listed $119,995 Zillow