1631 E Fannin St · Luling, TX 78648

$155,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,793 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1940 0.37 ac lot $86/sqft · 32% below area Est $229k · 32% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER! Cozy Farmhouse Living with Room to Breathe. Welcome home to this adorable farmhouse tucked away at the edge of town, where things feel a little quieter and life moves at a more relaxed pace. With 3 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there’s plenty of space for everyone to spread out and feel comfortable. The home features a nice, welcoming kitchen, a separate dining room for shared meals, and both a spacious living room and a large family room—perfect for movie nights, holidays, or just unwinding after a long day. You’ll love the convenience of the indoor laundry room, along with a large attached carport and extra outdoor storage for all your tools, hobbies, or weekend projects. Step outside and enjoy the spacious yard—ideal for morning coffee, kids playing, pets roaming, or simply soaking in the peaceful country setting. This home has 2 screened porches! 11.8 x 11.4 and 10.11 x 16.6! Located in Luling, this home offers that small-town charm while still being an easy drive to San Antonio, Austin, New Braunfels, Lockhart, and San Marcos. ASK ABOUT A POSSIBLE RATE BUYDOWN AND/OR CLOSING COST CREDIT WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER! If you’re looking for a place that feels like home the moment you arrive, this one is definitely worth a look.

Key facts

• Welcoming kitchen
• Large family room
• Separate dining room

Tags

• WELCOMING KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE ATTACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in Luling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#303 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Luling ISD (town): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #718 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.04%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,161
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -32.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Holly Ave	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,760 (-2%)	10mo	$310,000	$176	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,464
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,391
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78648

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,637/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $226	+0% $182	+5% $138	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $118	+0% $182	+5% $246	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $222	base $182	+0.5pp $142	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Huff St Luling, TX	3.0	1.5	1273	$1,600	$1.26	44d	1	0.67mi
521 S Oak Ave Luling, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,650	$1.31	44d	1	0.88mi
609 S Pecan Ave Luling, TX	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,600	$1.17	2d	1	1.12mi
600 S Pecan Ave Luling, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,900	$1.08	2d	1	1.15mi
306 E Bowie St Luling, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,299	$1.05	11d	1	1.20mi
127 Hillcrest Dr Luling, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,550	$1.12	16d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $155,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    price $165,000 1299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1299 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! Cozy Farmhouse Living with Room to Breathe. Welcome home to this adorable farmhouse tucked away at the edge of town, where things feel a little quieter and life moves at a more relaxed pace. With 3 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there’s plenty of space for everyone to spread out and feel comfortable. The home features a nice, welcoming kitchen, a separate dining room for shared meals, and both a spacious living room and a large family room—perfect for movie nights, holidays, or just unwinding after a long day. You’ll love the convenience of the indoor laundry room, along with a large attached carport and extra outdoor storage for all your tools, hobbies, or weekend projects. Step outside and enjoy the spacious yard—ideal for morning coffee, kids playing, pets roaming, or simply soaking in the peaceful country setting. This home has 2 screened porches! 11.8 x 11.4 and 10.11 x 16.6! Located in Luling, this home offers that small-town charm while still being an easy drive to San Antonio, Austin, New Braunfels, Lockhart, and San Marcos. ASK ABOUT A POSSIBLE RATE BUYDOWN AND/OR CLOSING COST CREDIT WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER! If you’re looking for a place that feels like home the moment you arrive, this one is definitely worth a look.

15. 2026-03-22
    listed $175,000 Active 1299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1299 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! Cozy Farmhouse Living with Room to Breathe. Welcome home to this adorable farmhouse tucked away at the edge of town, where things feel a little quieter and life moves at a more relaxed pace. With 3 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, there’s plenty of space for everyone to spread out and feel comfortable. The home features a nice, welcoming kitchen, a separate dining room for shared meals, and both a spacious living room and a large family room—perfect for movie nights, holidays, or just unwinding after a long day. You’ll love the convenience of the indoor laundry room, along with a large attached carport and extra outdoor storage for all your tools, hobbies, or weekend projects. Step outside and enjoy the spacious yard—ideal for morning coffee, kids playing, pets roaming, or simply soaking in the peaceful country setting. This home has 2 screened porches! 11.8 x 11.4 and 10.11 x 16.6! Located in Luling, this home offers that small-town charm while still being an easy drive to San Antonio, Austin, New Braunfels, Lockhart, and San Marcos. ASK ABOUT A POSSIBLE RATE BUYDOWN AND/OR CLOSING COST CREDIT WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER! If you’re looking for a place that feels like home the moment you arrive, this one is definitely worth a look.

16. 2008-07-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,637 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,637
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$67
• After-tax cash flow: $2,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Luling ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828590
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,233
• Composite: 21.21/100
• National rank: #8411
• State rank: #718 of 826 in TX

Livability — Luling

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #303
• US rank: #6859

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Luling, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,022

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 45% Two or more races 26% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.32%
• Current HPI: 224.4365
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $165,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $175,000 CTXMLS
• 2008-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,637 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.