71 Cimmarron Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$69,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 860 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 1987 7,840 sqft lot $81/sqft · 20% below area Est $87k · 20% under $67/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handy person opportunity. In the lakeside community of River Ridge Golf & Camping Club you will find this home just waiting for someone to make it their own. Home has 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath and 1 half bath. Spacious living room and eat in kitchen. Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis, basketball & pickleball courts, club houses, play grounds, pavilions, fishing pond, fishing pier, community boat launch and day slips. Gated entrance. Must bring a Realtor with you to see. Please use caution on deck and back door does not have a porch, use caution when opening that door. Lot next door is for sale also, lot is staked so you can see boundaries. EVERYTHING AS IS WHERE IS.

Key facts

• Fishing pond
• Gated entrance
• Lakeside community

Tags

• LAKESIDE COMMUNITY
• GATED ENTRANCE
• FISHING POND
• COMMUNITY BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $993 appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.53%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,132
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -19.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
58 Dismal Trl	0.19mi	2/2.0	850 (-1%)	9mo	$86,000	$101	80
145 Fox Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	860 (0%)	10mo	$86,000	$100	79
75 Elkhorn Trl	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	920 (+7%)	10mo	$107,000	$116	68
127 & 97 Feather Trl	0.28mi	2/2.0	980 (+14%)	1mo	$127,400	$130	61
18 Huron Trl	0.30mi	2/1.5	787 (-8%)	16mo	$135,000	$172	59
85 Lochsa Trl	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+5%)	1mo	$60,000	$67	58
52 & 62 Lumber Trl	0.62mi	1/1.0 (-1)	960 (+12%)	15mo	$55,000	$57	32
62 Lumber Trl	0.63mi	1/1.0 (-1)	960 (+12%)	15mo	$55,000	$57	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $45,928
• Equity at exit: $25,405

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $110,822
• Equity at exit: $34,987

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,636 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $780

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $69,900 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Handy person opportunity. In the lakeside community of River Ridge Golf & Camping Club you will find this home just waiting for someone to make it their own. Home has 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath and 1 half bath. Spacious living room and eat in kitchen. Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis, basketball & pickleball courts, club houses, play grounds, pavilions, fishing pond, fishing pier, community boat launch and day slips. Gated entrance. Must bring a Realtor with you to see. Please use caution on deck and back door does not have a porch, use caution when opening that door. Lot next door is for sale also, lot is staked so you can see boundaries. EVERYTHING AS IS WHERE IS.

18. 2026-03-31
    listed $79,900 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Handy person opportunity. In the lakeside community of River Ridge Golf & Camping Club you will find this home just waiting for someone to make it their own. Home has 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath and 1 half bath. Spacious living room and eat in kitchen. Community amenities include swimming pools, tennis, basketball & pickleball courts, club houses, play grounds, pavilions, fishing pond, fishing pier, community boat launch and day slips. Gated entrance. Must bring a Realtor with you to see. Please use caution on deck and back door does not have a porch, use caution when opening that door. Lot next door is for sale also, lot is staked so you can see boundaries. EVERYTHING AS IS WHERE IS.

19. 2026-01-21
    soldstatus $51,000 Closed 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    Discover the perfect opportunity to enjoy lake life at an affordable price! This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-wide home is comfortably livable as-is and ready for your personal touch and updates. Being sold as-is, it's priced accordingly, offering excellent potential for a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or investment property. Offered furnished, this home sits on two spacious lots within a gated Lake Gaston community featuring a pool, golf course, clubhouse, playgrounds, picnic areas, and more. Enjoy the peace of a private setting with all the fun of community amenities nearby. Bring your vision and make this your own peice of Lake Gaston living!

20. 2026-01-20
    soldstatus $51,000
21. 2026-01-01
    status Pending 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    Discover the perfect opportunity to enjoy lake life at an affordable price! This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-wide home is comfortably livable as-is and ready for your personal touch and updates. Being sold as-is, it's priced accordingly, offering excellent potential for a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or investment property. Offered furnished, this home sits on two spacious lots within a gated Lake Gaston community featuring a pool, golf course, clubhouse, playgrounds, picnic areas, and more. Enjoy the peace of a private setting with all the fun of community amenities nearby. Bring your vision and make this your own peice of Lake Gaston living!

22. 2025-10-06
    listed $65,000 Active 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    Discover the perfect opportunity to enjoy lake life at an affordable price! This 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-wide home is comfortably livable as-is and ready for your personal touch and updates. Being sold as-is, it's priced accordingly, offering excellent potential for a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or investment property. Offered furnished, this home sits on two spacious lots within a gated Lake Gaston community featuring a pool, golf course, clubhouse, playgrounds, picnic areas, and more. Enjoy the peace of a private setting with all the fun of community amenities nearby. Bring your vision and make this your own peice of Lake Gaston living!

23. 2008-05-22
    soldstatus $50,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$1,147
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,571
• − Management: −$1,571
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $7,545
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,811
• After-tax cash flow: $6,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+38.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $69,900 RVLG
• 2026-03-31 Listed $79,900 RVLG
• 2026-01-21 Sold (MLS) $51,000 RVLG
• 2026-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-01 Pending — RVLG
• 2025-10-06 Listed $65,000 RVLG
• 2008-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $30 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.