306 Sally Ave · San Juan, TX 78589

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,598 sqft · Manufactured public records · 365 Days on market

Built 2001 7,004 sqft lot $84/sqft · 32% below area Est $198k · 32% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman or Investors, this home is for you. This four bedrooms, one bath, large living room and kitchen will give you plenty of room to work with and make it yours. The home is just a few feet from busy Raul Longoria rd. will give you quick access to the highway. Don't miss out.

Key facts

• 7,004 sq ft lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 365 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.59%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,659
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -31.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,890
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $32,733
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,038/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $447	-5% $409	+0% $370	+5% $332	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $216	-5% $293	+0% $370	+5% $447	+10% $524
Rate	-1.0pp $438	-0.5pp $405	base $370	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
706 Fitzgerald St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,750	$1.39	44d	1	0.36mi
304 S Ridge Ln Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1120	$975	$0.87	44d	1	0.94mi
2716 E Conroe Rd Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.5	1623	$2,300	$1.42	14d	1	0.98mi
2700 E Comal RD Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$2,300	$1.52	14d	1	1.05mi
2700 Garman St Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,950	$1.53	14d	1	1.12mi
2614 Garman St Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$2,750	$1.52	14d	1	1.12mi
2606 Garman St Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,900	$1.31	19d	1	1.13mi
4124 S Shaquille Ave Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,800	$1.23	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 365 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 364 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 363 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 362 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 360 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 359 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 354 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 350 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 349 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 348 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 347 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 346 DOM
16. 2025-06-18
    listed $135,000 Active 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Handyman or Investors, this home is for you. This four bedrooms, one bath, large living room and kitchen will give you plenty of room to work with and make it yours. The home is just a few feet from busy Raul Longoria rd. will give you quick access to the highway. Don't miss out.

17. 2025-01-13
    listed $137,000 Active
18. 2024-07-14
    listed $137,000 Active
19. 2024-03-27
    listed $147,000 Active
20. 1996-11-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,038 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,038 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AH · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,038
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$629
• After-tax cash flow: $3,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-18 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-01-13 Listed $137,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-14 Listed $137,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-03-27 Listed $147,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1996-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,038 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.