427 SW Alvarez Rd · Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL 34431

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Land · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY and NO HOA! Welcome home to this stunning brand-new construction nestled on a spacious 0.25-acre homesite, offering the perfect blend of modern style, comfort, and freedom. Designed with today's lifestyle in mind, this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features an open-concept layout filled with natural light, luxury vinyl flooring throughout, and a seamless flow ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The thoughtfully designed galley kitchen is sure to impress with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, modern fixtures, abundant cabinetry, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. A designated dining area provides the perfect space for family meals and gath

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Galley kitchen
• New construction

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SPACIOUS HOMESITE
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Rainbow Lakes Estates — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $210k implies a 1999% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,349 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-42,676
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-48,247
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,148/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,836

Max offer price $190,161

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3000 Clarcona Rd Apopka, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,250	$1.52	13d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on marketlisting id $209,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    historical
13. 2026-05-14
    price $209,900
14. 2026-04-12
    price $214,900
15. 2026-04-01
    price $221,990
16. 2026-03-10
    price $218,990
17. 2026-02-11
    price $223,000
18. 2026-01-28
    status Active
19. 2025-10-10
    listed $219,900 Active
20. 2005-01-25
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,148
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$5,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Lakes Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 72.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1999.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $209,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $214,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $221,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $218,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $223,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $236 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.