Cheverny Plan · Cypress, TX 77433

$314,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Chateau Collection | The Cheverny | 1,710 Sq. Ft. | Two Story | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | Covered Patio | 2-Car Garage Photos are representative. Selections and features may vary by community.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 84 days

🏗️ New construction. The $314,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $334,417.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.8% in Cypress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roberts Road El (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 976 students, 63% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2594 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $238,146 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.51%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,417
• List price: $314,990
• Delta: -5.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12682 Blue Catfish Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,897 (+11%)	0mo	$295,990	$156	78
21111 Rio San Jose Ct	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,766 (+3%)	1mo	$249,900	$142	77
12742 Grayson County Rd	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+9%)	2mo	$318,615	$171	76
12750 Grayson County Rd	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,878 (+10%)	2mo	$326,315	$174	75
12766 Grayson County Rd	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,878 (+10%)	2mo	$329,915	$176	74
21211 Gulf Menhaden Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (+3%)	2mo	$379,990	$217	69
12518 Nueces River Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+4%)	0mo	$349,900	$196	68
12623 Nueces River Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,673 (-2%)	2mo	$369,990	$221	67
12635 Nueces River Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+4%)	2mo	$368,900	$207	65
21218 Gulf Menhaden Ln	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,521 (-11%)	0mo	$334,900	$220	55
21003 Medina River Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,959 (+15%)	2mo	$388,990	$199	52
12319 Fort Hood Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,883 (+10%)	2mo	$430,886	$229	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-88,502
• Equity at exit: $49,863

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-139,134
• Equity at exit: $28,914

Cash invested: $93,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $350,000 ($200/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2594
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,381 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,754
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$418 /mo · $5,016/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,925

Max offer price $272,236

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-199	-5% $-314	+0% $-430	+5% $-545	+10% $-661
Rent	-10% $-618	-5% $-524	+0% $-430	+5% $-336	+10% $-242
Rate	-1.0pp $-261	-0.5pp $-345	base $-430	+0.5pp $-516	+1.0pp $-605

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,604
• Closing costs: $10,033
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12623 Blue Catfish Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,350	$1.23	54d	1	0.07mi
12519 Ja Ranch Ct Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1521	$2,400	$1.58	73d	1	0.25mi
21158 Staked Plains Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2003	$2,495	$1.25	16d	1	0.29mi
12946 Rio Mariano Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1748	$2,199	$1.26	16d	1	0.38mi
21121 Doubtful Canyon Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	17d	1	0.39mi
21234 Black Gap Wildlife Dr , TX	3.0	2.5	1865	$2,500	$1.34	92d	1	0.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $314,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named ChevernySingle-family property (plan) located at 12607 Grayson County Dr, Cypress, TX
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 listing (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,710

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $314,990 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $314,990 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $314,990 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $314,990 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $314,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   remarks 207-char remark
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $314,990 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $314,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $314,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $314,990 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $314,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $314,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $314,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $314,990 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $314,990 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $314,990 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $314,990 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $314,990 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $314,990 Active 60 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $314,990 Active 59 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $314,990 Active 58 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $314,990 Active 57 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $314,990 Active 56 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $314,990 Active 55 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $314,990 Active 53 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $314,990 Active 52 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $314,990 Active 51 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $314,990 Active 50 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $314,990 Active 49 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $314,990 Active 48 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $314,990 Active 47 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $314,990 Active 46 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $314,990 Active 45 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $314,990 Active 44 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $314,990 Active 43 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $314,990 Active 42 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $314,990 Active 40 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $314,990 Active 37 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $314,990 Active 34 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $314,990 Active 33 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $314,990 Active 32 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $314,990 Active 31 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $314,990 Active 29 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $314,990 Active 25 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $314,990 Active 24 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $314,990 Active 23 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $314,990 Active 20 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,990 Active 19 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,990 Active 18 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,990 Active 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,733
• − Property taxes: −$5,016
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − Depreciation: −$9,728
• Taxable loss: −$11,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,675
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,550–$25,650 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern interior and exterior. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and freshens the home's appearance. ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fan — Modernizes the living space and improves air circulation. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Roberts Road El F TX #2,234/4,322 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 212,884
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $314,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named ChevernySingle-family property (plan) located at 12607 Grayson County Dr, Cypress, TX
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 listing (new construction plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,710

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area