345 Millwood Ln · Lavon, TX 75166

$264,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,237 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,600 sqft lot 2-car garage $214/sqft · 13% below area Est $304k · 13% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The wide front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

Key facts

• 4,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nesmith El (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 768 students, 44% FRL); Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 750 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,846 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,880
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -12.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 Millwood Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	0mo	$269,990	$202	84
112 Millwood Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	2mo	$272,990	$204	72
17560 Fm 2755	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (-1%)	15mo	$382,999	$313	53
973 Tulip Trl	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-0%)	14mo	$269,900	$219	53
956 Tulip Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,270 (+3%)	15mo	$272,712	$215	49
933 Tulip Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+8%)	12mo	$274,990	$206	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-67,275
• Equity at exit: $39,511

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-89,526
• Equity at exit: $22,911

Cash invested: $74,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.0 mo (50%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,990 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 4 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +30.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 750
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,545

Max offer price $209,381

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-201	-5% $-293	+0% $-384	+5% $-476	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-547	-5% $-466	+0% $-384	+5% $-303	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-251	-0.5pp $-317	base $-384	+0.5pp $-453	+1.0pp $-523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,248
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
783 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,049	$1.40	30d	1	0.98mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	93d	1	1.06mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	93d	1	1.08mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 9107 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,425	$1.18	7d	1	1.12mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,718	$1.67	4d	20	1.40mi
200 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,857	$2.13	2d	6	1.40mi
361 Elevon Pkwy Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,399	$1.16	41d	1	1.43mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	93d	1	1.43mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1353	$1,999	$1.48	37d	1	1.46mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,333	$2.68	0d	80	1.49mi
872 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1237	$2,000	$1.62	56d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include community pool, playground, sidewalks, curbs, and jogging/bike paths
• Financial info: No second mortgageLoan status: Treat as clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Nicholson Ranch)Annual HOA feeHOA provides full use of facilitiesHOA managed by Neighborhood Management, Inc

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and garage facing front2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Prewired securitySmoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerLocated in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyNot attachedNew construction (2026, incomplete)Smart home featuresLocated in Nicholson Ranch subdivision
• Construction: Brick, rock/stone, and siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationYear built 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPrivate yardGuttersExterior lightingWood fencing in back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktopElectric ovenDishwasherDisposalPantryTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plankTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplanPantryCable TV availableHigh-speed internet availableWalk-in closet(s)6 total rooms1 living area1 dining areaLevels: One
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room

HOA detail $54/mo · $648/yr

• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   price $264,990 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $267,990 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $267,990 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $267,990 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $267,990 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $267,990 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $267,990 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $267,990 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $267,990 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $267,990 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $267,990 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $267,990 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $267,990 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $267,990 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $267,990 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $267,990 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $267,990 Active 30 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $267,990 Active 29 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $267,990 Active 28 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $267,990 Active 27 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $267,990 Active 26 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $267,990 Active 25 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $267,990 Active 24 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $267,990 Active 23 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $267,990 Active 21 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $267,990 Active 20 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $267,990 Active 19 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $267,990 Active 18 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $267,990 Active 17 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $267,990 Active 16 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $267,990 Active 15 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $267,990 Active 14 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $267,990 Active 13 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $267,990 Active 12 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $267,990 Active 11 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $267,990 Active 10 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $267,990 Active 8 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $267,990 Active 6 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $267,990 Active 5 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    price $267,990 Active 2 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $267,989 Active 2 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    remarks 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The wide front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

44. 2026-06-17
    listing id $267,989 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The wide front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

45. 2026-06-16
    remarks 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The wide front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

46. 2026-06-16
    listed $267,989 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    The Ash is designed to cultivate serenity. The wide front porch entices you to drink coffee al fresco in the mornings before heading indoors for breakfast. There's plenty of counterspace in the kitchen for you to spread out and chop some veggies for the perfect frittata. You have most of the day free, so why not use that extra time to exercise in the home gym you set up in one of the three bedrooms? Afterward, curl up with your favorite book in the generously sized family room. Guests are coming over for dinner later, but for now you have all the time in the world!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$2,827
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$9,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,221
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,185–$18,555 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and smart home technology to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Nesmith El D- TX #1,097/4,322 Nat'l #15,585/41,679 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include community pool, playground, sidewalks, curbs, and jogging/bike paths
• Financial info: No second mortgageLoan status: Treat as clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Nicholson Ranch)Annual HOA feeHOA provides full use of facilitiesHOA managed by Neighborhood Management, Inc

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and garage facing front2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Prewired securitySmoke detector(s)Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerLocated in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyNot attachedNew construction (2026, incomplete)Smart home featuresLocated in Nicholson Ranch subdivision
• Construction: Brick, rock/stone, and siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationYear built 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioPrivate yardGuttersExterior lightingWood fencing in back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktopElectric ovenDishwasherDisposalPantryTankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plankTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplanPantryCable TV availableHigh-speed internet availableWalk-in closet(s)6 total rooms1 living area1 dining areaLevels: One
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $267,990 NTREIS
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $267,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Listed $267,989 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Listed $267,989 NTREIS