3641 Jubal Early Hwy · Boones Mill, VA 24065

$198,888

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1975 8.12 ac lot $136/sqft · 16% above area Est $343k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home is nestled on 8.12 acres and offers the perfect opportunity for an investor, contractor, or visionary looking for their next project! This home needs a full renovation, but offers the potential of instant equity and a blank slate for a new homeowner! Property offers privacy yet convenience and includes a large pole barn, detached garage, and spacious two story shed.

Key facts

• Large pole barn
• Full renovation
• 8.12 acres

Tags

• 8.12 ACRES
• FULL RENOVATION
• LARGE POLE BARN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS TWO STORY SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#303 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Franklin County Public School District (town): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #24 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,207
• List price: $198,888
• Delta: -42.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-37,795
• Equity at exit: $29,655

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-40,332
• Equity at exit: $17,196

Cash invested: $55,689 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24065

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $793/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,509

Max offer price $183,700

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,722
• Closing costs: $5,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 Thornhill Ln Boones Mill, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,888 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,888 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,888 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,888 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,888 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,888 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,888 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,888 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,888 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,888 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,888 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,888 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,888 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,888 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $198,888 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home is nestled on 8.12 acres and offers the perfect opportunity for an investor, contractor, or visionary looking for their next project! This home needs a full renovation, but offers the potential of instant equity and a blank slate for a new homeowner! Property offers privacy yet convenience and includes a large pole barn, detached garage, and spacious two story shed.

16. 2026-04-01
    status Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home is nestled on 8.12 acres and offers the perfect opportunity for an investor, contractor, or visionary looking for their next project! This home needs a full renovation, but offers the potential of instant equity and a blank slate for a new homeowner! Property offers privacy yet convenience and includes a large pole barn, detached garage, and spacious two story shed.

17. 2026-03-03
    status Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home is nestled on 8.12 acres and offers the perfect opportunity for an investor, contractor, or visionary looking for their next project! This home needs a full renovation, but offers the potential of instant equity and a blank slate for a new homeowner! Property offers privacy yet convenience and includes a large pole barn, detached garage, and spacious two story shed.

18. 2025-12-01
    status Pending 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home is nestled on 8.12 acres and offers the perfect opportunity for an investor, contractor, or visionary looking for their next project! This home needs a full renovation, but offers the potential of instant equity and a blank slate for a new homeowner! Property offers privacy yet convenience and includes a large pole barn, detached garage, and spacious two story shed.

19. 2025-12-01
    historical 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home is nestled on 8.12 acres and offers the perfect opportunity for an investor, contractor, or visionary looking for their next project! This home needs a full renovation, but offers the potential of instant equity and a blank slate for a new homeowner! Property offers privacy yet convenience and includes a large pole barn, detached garage, and spacious two story shed.

20. 2025-09-28
    listed $200,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    This 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath home is nestled on 8.12 acres and offers the perfect opportunity for an investor, contractor, or visionary looking for their next project! This home needs a full renovation, but offers the potential of instant equity and a blank slate for a new homeowner! Property offers privacy yet convenience and includes a large pole barn, detached garage, and spacious two story shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $793 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$838/yr (+$70/mo · 105.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,141
• − Property taxes: −$793
• − Insurance: −$994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$5,786
• Taxable loss: −$4,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $73/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101440
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,093
• Composite: 59.5/100
• National rank: #921
• State rank: #24 of 131 in VA

Livability — Boones Mill

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #303
• US rank: #10911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,497

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,242 people
• By 2030: 55,742 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 53,669 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 50,291 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 42,395 · -24.6%
• By 2100: 32,981 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.9% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -22.8pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+42.1 2016: R+42.2 2012: R+28.6 2008: R+22.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.98%
• Current HPI: 177.7607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $198,888 MLSRV
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — MLSRV
• 2025-12-01 Pending — MLSRV
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2025-09-28 Listed $200,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $793 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.