15252 Seneca Rd #13 · Victorville, CA 92394

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 858 sqft · Manufactured public records · 231 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $75k · 46% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Gorgeous BRAND NEW manufactured home in a nice gated family park! 5% down available and low monthly payments! Excellent location! Nice, gated family park.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 231 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Gold West; Located north of Seneca
• HOA & community: Street lighting in the community; Land lease applies (approximately $800)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces; Located in Gold West park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story manufactured/mobile home (model: Canyon Lake); Mobile home remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 15 ft wide by 56 ft long
• Construction: Year built reported by seller
• Exterior features: Front yard; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: Single-level layout
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling (details in remarks)
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Victor Elementary (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #408 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→4/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.32%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,646
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15252 Seneca Rd #297	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	800 (-7%)	4mo	$85,000	$106	80
15252 Seneca Rd #144	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-2%)	9mo	$72,500	$86	76
15252 Seneca Rd #57	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (-9%)	12mo	$50,000	$64	66
15252 Seneca Rd #36	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	744 (-13%)	15mo	$65,000	$87	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $64,480
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $189,125
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92394

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,413 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $1,153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15230 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$2,005	$2.49	1d	12	0.04mi
14374 Borego Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,080	$2.47	1d	12	0.21mi
14344 Mcart Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1042	$2,395	$2.30	1d	5	0.23mi
14485 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1123	$2,545	$2.27	1d	6	0.91mi
14440 Stivers Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	994	$1,950	$1.96	10d	1	0.93mi
14450 El Evado Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$2,075	$2.32	1d	3	0.95mi
14299 La Paz Dr Unit 3A Victorville, CA	2.0	1.5	880	$1,495	$1.70	1d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,000 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $109,000
16. 2026-04-28
    price $115,000
17. 2026-04-06
    price $117,000
18. 2026-03-18
    price $119,000
19. 2026-03-13
    price $122,000
20. 2026-03-07
    price $125,000
21. 2026-03-04
    price $127,000
22. 2026-02-16
    price $129,000
23. 2026-02-10
    price $131,000
24. 2026-01-22
    price $134,000
25. 2026-01-15
    price $136,000
26. 2025-12-17
    price $139,000
27. 2025-10-30
    listed $129,000 Active
28. 2025-10-24
    historical
29. 2025-07-11
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥99°F today · 4 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $12,863
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,087
• After-tax cash flow: $10,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641040
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,949
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8304
• State rank: #408 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,614
• Household income: $78,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1485.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 24% Black 20% White 15% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Current HPI: 384.3185
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.46%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $109,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $117,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $119,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $122,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $127,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $131,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $134,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $136,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $129,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-12.6%/yr

Latest (2015): $173 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.