16969 Hazelnut Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$269,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,447 sqft · Land · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 6,671 sqft lot $110/sqft · at area comps Est $270k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Lassen floor plan opens with an inviting porch entry that leads past private study and a powder room. An impressive open kitchen with a center island is adjacent and flows into a dining area and an airy great room, creating the perfect space for entertaining and everyday living. The owner’s suite is conveniently located on the main level and offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Upstairs, there are two bedrooms and a bath, as well as a versatile loft space.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Porch entry
• Great room

Tags

• PORCH ENTRY
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $241,396 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,134
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -0.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-27,012
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-170
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,414 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $872/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,094

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $329	+0% $253	+5% $176	+10% $100
Rent	-10% $62	-5% $157	+0% $253	+5% $348	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $321	base $253	+0.5pp $183	+1.0pp $111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	0d	13	0.28mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $269,900 Pending 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $269,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-05-06
   price $269,900 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The two-story Lassen floor plan opens with an inviting porch entry that leads past private study and a powder room. An impressive open kitchen with a center island is adjacent and flows into a dining area and an airy great room, creating the perfect space for entertaining and everyday living. The owner’s suite is conveniently located on the main level and offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Upstairs, there are two bedrooms and a bath, as well as a versatile loft space.

5. 2026-03-20
   price $306,900 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The two-story Lassen floor plan opens with an inviting porch entry that leads past private study and a powder room. An impressive open kitchen with a center island is adjacent and flows into a dining area and an airy great room, creating the perfect space for entertaining and everyday living. The owner’s suite is conveniently located on the main level and offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Upstairs, there are two bedrooms and a bath, as well as a versatile loft space.

6. 2026-03-06
   listed $308,900 Active 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The two-story Lassen floor plan opens with an inviting porch entry that leads past private study and a powder room. An impressive open kitchen with a center island is adjacent and flows into a dining area and an airy great room, creating the perfect space for entertaining and everyday living. The owner’s suite is conveniently located on the main level and offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Upstairs, there are two bedrooms and a bath, as well as a versatile loft space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,939 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,068/yr (+$339/mo · 466.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$872
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$1,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $3,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $306,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $308,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $872 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.