21248 Seminole St · Lockhart, AL 36455

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1910 0.34 ac lot $64/sqft · 14% below area Est $163k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Classic 1910 2 story house, charming 3/1 house sits on a generous shaded corner lot with a large fenced-in yard, perfect for pets, outdoor activities with the family, or just enjoying the peace and quiet. The home features a brand-new tankless water heater, new HVAC, new mini-split units upstairs for year-round comfort. Home has new gas lines under house, and the roof is less than 10 years old. A portion of the house has tongue and groove walls, other are paneling. French doors and all the charm are still in place. Home welcomes you with a custom-made fence, covering trees and a large, covered porch great for afternoon relaxing. Attached carport, lots of flowering shrubs to enjoy plus Ellio

Key facts

• Shaded corner lot
• Large fenced-in yard
• New hvac

Tags

• SHADED CORNER LOT
• LARGE FENCED-IN YARD
• NEW HVAC
• NEW MINI-SPLIT UNITS
• NEW GAS LINES
• ROOF LESS THAN 10 YEARS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#183 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Covington County (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #32 of 129 in AL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $140k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,709 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.77%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $163,191
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -14.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21249 Cherokee Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	2,024 (-7%)	3mo	$65,000	$32	82
21220 Cherokee Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,344 (+8%)	1mo	$225,000	$96	78
21904 Rappahannock Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,148 (-1%)	14mo	$189,900	$88	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $22,550
• Equity at exit: $62,905

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $72,132
• Equity at exit: $96,944

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36455

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $475/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,053

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $139,900
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $159,900 Active
19. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $475 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $574 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$475
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,120
• − Management: −$1,120
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$316
• After-tax cash flow: $1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington County
• NCES district ID: 0100930
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,213
• Composite: 32.13/100
• National rank: #5797
• State rank: #32 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #15412

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, AL
• City population: 284
• Population (ZIP): 284

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,007 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 34,983 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 33,437 · -9.6%
• By 2075: 29,753 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 25,109 · -32.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.4) · D 13.6% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.3pp · 2024: -72.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.4 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+68.5 2012: R+58.3 2008: R+58.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+133.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $139,900 CAOR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $159,900 CAOR
• 2022-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $475 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.