119 S Lincoln St · Bay City, MI 48708

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1920 5,227 sqft lot Est $129k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced for immediate sale and listed below SEV. This 3 Bedroom, 1 full bath home near the Columbus Ave District is looking for a new owner to make their own. This nearly 1200 square foot home has a full basement and a detached garage. Call to schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Electric service (standard); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential 1.5-story home; Built in 1920; Facing road frontage
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Basement foundation; Original 1920 construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Porch; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (16 x 18) with carpet
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (17 x 13) with carpet; Second bedroom on the second floor (14 x 13) with carpet; Third bedroom on the second floor (approx. 13 wide) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas, bedrooms, dining room, and kitchen; Linoleum in bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (linoleum floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Basement present; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Basement (utility space available)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $336 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.15%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1517 11th St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+2%)	1mo	$143,000	$119	87
501 S McLellan St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,176 (0%)	4mo	$153,000	$130	85
1508 11th St	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,242 (+6%)	2mo	$136,000	$110	78
401 S Hampton St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-6%)	6mo	$110,000	$100	74
307 N MCLELLAN St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,089 (-7%)	1mo	$95,000	$87	72
2121 7th St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,182 (+0%)	2mo	$175,000	$148	63
1010 13th St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,048 (-11%)	4mo	$65,000	$62	63
716 S Farragut St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,075 (-9%)	5mo	$75,000	$70	62
901 S Monroe St	0.59mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (-6%)	4mo	$41,500	$38	54
732 S Madison Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,068 (-9%)	3mo	$117,100	$110	53
200 Tuscola Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+10%)	4mo	$157,500	$122	50
509 11th St	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,324 (+13%)	4mo	$54,100	$41	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $10,925
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $37,323
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,910/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	43d	1	0.47mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	0.72mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-12
   status $65,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 271-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,910
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$779
• After-tax cash flow: $3,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,910 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.